Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth
Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41558-021-01000-1
复制
发表时间：
2021-04-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Lobel, David B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel;Ault, Toby R.;Lobel, David B.
农业生产力在历史上有所提高，但气候变化对生产力增长的影响尚不清楚。在过去的60年里，人为气候变化使全球农业全要素生产减少了21%，在温暖地区的影响更大。农业研究促进了生产力的增长，但人为气候变化（ACC）对这种增长的历史影响尚未量化。我们建立了一个稳健的气候对全球农业全要素生产率（TFP）影响的计量经济学模型，并将该模型与反事实气候情景相结合，以评估过去气候趋势对TFP的影响。我们的基线模型表明，自1961年以来，ACC已经使全球农业全要素生产率下降了约21%，这相当于失去了过去7年的生产率增长。在非洲、拉丁美洲和加勒比等较温暖的地区，这种影响更为严重（减少约26-34%）。我们还发现，全球农业越来越容易受到持续气候变化的影响。
Agricultural productivity has increased historically, but the impact of climate change on productivity growth is not clear. In the last 60 years, anthropogenic climate change has reduced agricultural total factor production globally by 21%, with stronger impacts in warmer regions.Agricultural research has fostered productivity growth, but the historical influence of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) on that growth has not been quantified. We develop a robust econometric model of weather effects on global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) and combine this model with counterfactual climate scenarios to evaluate impacts of past climate trends on TFP. Our baseline model indicates that ACC has reduced global agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is equivalent to losing the last 7 years of productivity growth. The effect is substantially more severe (a reduction of ~26-34%) in warmer regions such as Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. We also find that global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to ongoing climate change.