The role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios: An analysis with the World-TIMES model
The role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios: An analysis with the World-TIMES model
复制标题
核能在长期气候情景中的作用：使用 World-TIMES 模型进行分析
DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2008.01.015
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
J. Waaub
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kathleen Vaillancourt;M. Labriet;R. Loulou;J. Waaub
从文献中可以看出，关于核问题的辩论又重新活跃起来。一些分析表明，核技术可能是减少温室气体（GHG）排放的非常有吸引力的选择，特别是在能源需求预测高增长的国家。我们的目标是使用World-TIMES（综合MARKAL-EFOM系统）自下而上模型分析核能在长期气候情景中的作用。World-TIMES是一个对全球15个地区100年（2000-2100年）能源系统进行优化的全球模型。我们给出了两种二氧化碳浓度水平（到2100年达到450和550ppmv）的气候情景下的能源和排放结果。我们在不同的技术参数假设和核能发展的外生约束条件下分析核能的渗透水平，以反映社会观念。核能技术满足了许多地区电力生产的很大一部分。大多数地区正在经历以先进的油气技术和水力发电为基础的能源转型。其他可再生能源技术可能发挥更重要的作用，但需要进一步降低成本或制定新的法规，才能在很大程度上渗透市场。碳固存和减少能源服务的内生需求也对实现环境目标作出了重大贡献。
There is a revival in the nuclear debate observed in the literature. Several analyses have shown that nuclear technologies may represent very attractive options for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, especially in countries with high growth projections for energy demand. Our objective is to analyze the role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios using the World-TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) bottom-up model. World-TIMES is a global model that optimizes the energy system of 15 regions over a 100-year horizon (2000–2100). We present energy and emission results for climate scenarios for two levels of CO2concentration (450 and 550ppmv by 2100). We analyze the penetration level of nuclear energy under various sets of assumptions on technology parameters and exogenous constraints on nuclear development to reflect social perceptions. Nuclear energy technologies satisfy a large portion of electricity production in many regions. Most regions experience an energy transition based on advanced oil and gas technologies and hydropower. Other renewable technologies might play a more important role but need further cost reductions or new regulations to penetrate the market in substantial proportions. Carbon sequestration and endogenous demand reductions for energy services are also significantly contributing to reach environmental target.