Where have all the workers gone? Recalls, retirements, and reallocation in the COVID recovery
Where have all the workers gone? Recalls, retirements, and reallocation in the COVID recovery
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102251
复制
发表时间：
2022-09-10
期刊：
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Wiczer, David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Forsythe, Eliza;Kahn, Lisa B.;Wiczer, David
在新冠疫情爆发之初，美国经济突然迅速失去了2000万个工作岗位。在接下来的两年里，经济一直在复苏的道路上。我们评估了新冠肺炎危机两年来的劳动力市场。我们发现，早期的就业动态几乎完全是由临时裁员和后来的召回。考虑到这些因素，我们发现，尽管就业岗位大幅减少，但劳动力市场在整个危机期间仍然令人惊讶地紧张。到2022年春季，劳动力市场已基本恢复，市场极度紧张，就业人口比略有下降，主要是由于退休。最后，我们几乎没有看到过度再分配的证据，尽管有人预测新冠肺炎将极大地永久改变我们的生活和工作方式。我们确实看到，就业已经从低技能的服务性工作中重新分配，并根据职位空缺模式得出结论，工人的偏好或工作设施的变化正在推动这种转变。此外，退休为工作阶梯的上升铺平了道路，使低技能的面向客户的工作变得更加不受欢迎。
At the onset of the COVID pandemic, the U.S. economy suddenly and swiftly lost 20 million jobs. Over the next two years, the economy has been on the recovery path. We assess the labor market two years into the COVID crisis. We show that early employment dynamics were almost entirely driven by temporary layoffs and later recalls. Taking these into account, we show that the labor market remained surprisingly tight throughout the crisis, despite the dramatic job losses. By spring 2022, the labor market had largely recovered and was characterized by extremely tight markets and a slightly depressed employment-to-population ratio driven largely by retirements. Finally, we see surprisingly little evidence of excess reallocation, despite predictions that COVID would dramatically and permanently change the way we live and work. We do see that employment has reallocated somewhat away from low-skilled service jobs, and, in light of the job vacancy patterns, conclude that worker preferences or changes in job amenities are driving this shift. In addition, the retirements paved the way for movements up the job ladder, making low-skilled customer-facing jobs even less desirable.