Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss
Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-017-0049-x
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发表时间：
2018-02-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Hock, Regine
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Huss, Matthias;Hock, Regine
世界范围内的冰川退缩和相关的未来径流变化引起了对全球水资源可持续性的重大关注（1-4），但全球范围内的冰川衰退和由此产生的水文后果的评估是稀缺的（5，6）。在这里，我们计算全球冰川径流变化的56个大型冰川流域到2100年，并分析冰川对径流的影响。在大约一半的调查流域中，模拟的年度冰川径流量继续上升，直到达到最大值（“峰值水”），超过该值径流量稳步下降。在其余盆地中，这个临界点已经过去。在有较大冰川和较高冰覆盖率的盆地中，峰值水量出现得较晚。通常，未来冰川径流在初夏增加，但在夏末减少。虽然56个流域中的大多数都有不到2%的冰覆盖，到2100年，其中三分之一可能会经历径流减少超过10%，由于冰川质量损失在至少一个月的融化季节，与中亚和安第斯山脉的最大减少。我们的结论是，即使在大规模的流域与最小的冰盖部分，下游水文持续冰川浪费的影响可能是巨大的，但幅度变化很大，流域之间和整个融化季节。
Worldwide glacier retreat and associated future runoff changes raise major concerns over the sustainability of global water resources(1-4), but global-scale assessments of glacier decline and the resulting hydrological consequences are scarce(5,6). Here we compute global glacier runoff changes for 56 large-scale glacierized drainage basins to 2100 and analyse the glacial impact on streamflow. In roughly half of the investigated basins, the modelled annual glacier runoff continues to rise until a maximum ('peak water') is reached, beyond which runoff steadily declines. In the remaining basins, this tipping point has already been passed. Peak water occurs later in basins with larger glaciers and higher ice-cover fractions. Typically, future glacier runoff increases in early summer but decreases in late summer. Although most of the 56 basins have less than 2% ice coverage, by 2100 one-third of them might experience runoff decreases greater than 10% due to glacier mass loss in at least one month of the melt season, with the largest reductions in central Asia and the Andes. We conclude that, even in large-scale basins with minimal ice-cover fraction, the downstream hydrological effects of continued glacier wastage can be substantial, but the magnitudes vary greatly among basins and throughout the melt season.