Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960-2015
Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960-2015
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DOI：
10.1016/s0965-8564(98)00026-3
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发表时间：
1999-02-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Gately, D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dargay, J;Gately, D
本文对经合组织国家和包括中国、印度和巴基斯坦在内的一些发展中经济体到2015年的汽车和汽车总存量的增长进行了预测。这些预测是基于一个计量经济学估计模型，该模型解释了汽车/人口比率（“汽车拥有量”）作为人均收入的函数的增长;汽车拥有量也使用了类似的模型。模型估计数是根据1960-1992年期间26个国家的年度数据作出的;这是第一次研究包括从最低到最高的各种收入水平的国家。该模型是动态指定的，因此，短期和长期的收入弹性的汽车和车辆所有权的估计。这些收入弹性取决于人均收入，范围从低收入和中等收入水平的2.0左右（即所有权增长速度是收入增长速度的两倍）到最高收入水平的0，因为所有权接近饱和。各国之间的相似性和差异体现在模型规格，并分析了预测的影响。(C)1998爱思唯尔科技有限公司版权所有。
This paper makes projections of the growth in the car and total vehicle stock to the year 2015, for OECD countries and a number of developing economies, including China, India, and Pakistan. The projections are based on an econometrically estimated model that explains the growth of the car/population ratio ('car ownership') as a function of per-capita income; a similar model is used for vehicle ownership. The model estimations are based on annual data for 26 countries over the period 1960-1992; it is the first study to include countries covering the full range of income levels, from lowest to highest. The models are dynamically specified, so that short- and long-run income elasticities of car and vehicle ownership are estimated. These income elasticities depend upon per-capita income, ranging from about 2.0, for low- and middle-income levels (that is, ownership grows twice as fast as income), down to zero, as ownership saturation is approached for the highest income levels. The similarities and differences among countries are embodied within the model specification, and the implications for the projections are analyzed. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.