Probabilistic evaluation of flood hazard in urban areas using Monte Carlo simulation
Probabilistic evaluation of flood hazard in urban areas using Monte Carlo simulation
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DOI：
10.1002/hyp.8370
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发表时间：
2012-12-30
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Neal, J. C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aronica, G. T.;Franza, F.;Neal, J. C.
本研究的目标是利用蒙特卡罗模拟英国城市地区（特别是格拉斯哥市的市区）的洪水传播来绘制洪水灾害图。描述洪水波传播的水动力模型基于二维形式的德圣维南方程，能够考虑该地区的地形复杂性（优先流出路径、建筑物、沙井等）以及城市地区普遍不透水的特征，已用于推导洪水事件的水动力特征（即水深和流速）。从传播模型中获得的水深分布和当前速度的知识以及从数字地图数据中获得的城市地区地形特征的知识，可以根据正确定义的危险指数生成危险地图。这些指标在概率框架中进行评估，以克服设计事件洪水范围的单一确定性预测的经典问题，并引入给定点洪水可能性的概念，即数据不确定性、模型结构误差和参数化不确定性之和。版权所有 (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
The goal of the presented research was the derivation of flood hazard maps, using Monte Carlo simulation of flood propagation at an urban site in the UK, specifically an urban area of the city of Glasgow. A hydrodynamic model describing the propagation of flood waves, based on the De Saint Venant equations in two-dimensional form capable of accounting for the topographic complexity of the area (preferential outflow paths, buildings, manholes, etc.) and for the characteristics of prevailing imperviousness typical of the urban areas, has been used to derive the hydrodynamic characteristics of flood events (i.e. water depths and flow velocities). The knowledge of the water depth distribution and of the current velocities derived from the propagation model along with the knowledge of the topographic characteristics of the urban area from digital map data allowed for the production of hazard maps based on properly defined hazard indexes. These indexes are evaluated in a probabilistic framework to overcome the classical problem of single deterministic prediction of flood extent for the design event and to introduce the concept of the likelihood of flooding at a given point as the sum of data uncertainty, model structural error and parameterization uncertainty. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.