Monetary Policy and Financial Imbalances: Facts and Fiction
Monetary Policy and Financial Imbalances: Facts and Fiction
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货币政策和金融失衡：事实与虚构
DOI：
10.1111/j.1468-0327.2010.00249.x
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
S. Gerlach
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Katrin Assenmacher;S. Gerlach
“金融危机之后，许多人认为，货币政策应倾向于抑制资产价格上涨，信贷和资产价格偏离趋势可用于捕捉金融失衡。我们研究了18个国家1986-2008年的季度数据，并认为这些措施包含的信息很少，对预测未来的经济状况有用。这让人对“逆风”观点产生了怀疑。我们还认为，为应对这种失衡而收紧货币政策可能会大幅抑制真实的增长。然而，这一发现对卢卡斯的批评很敏感。“版权所有（c）CEPR、CES、MSH，2010年。
"Following the financial crisis, many have argued that monetary policy should lean against asset price increases and that deviations of credit and asset prices from trend can be used to capture financial imbalances. We study quarterly data spanning 1986-2008 for a sample of 18 countries and argue that such measures contain little information useful for forecasting the future economic conditions. This casts doubts on the leaning-against-the-wind view. We also argue that tightening monetary policy in response to such imbalances are likely to depress real growth substantially. That finding, however, is sensitive to the Lucas critique." Copyright (c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2010.