History matching of a complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus transmission by using variance emulation.
History matching of a complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus transmission by using variance emulation.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/rssc.12198
复制
发表时间：
2017-08
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
White RG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Andrianakis I;Vernon I;McCreesh N;McKinley TJ;Oakley JE;Nsubuga RN;Goldstein M;White RG
复杂的随机模型在流行病学中很常见，但它们的效用取决于它们对经验数据的校准。历史匹配是一种（预）校准方法，已成功地应用于复杂的确定性模型。在这项工作中，我们适应历史匹配随机模型，通过模拟模型输出的方差，因此占其依赖于模型的输入值。所提出的方法被施加到一个真实的复杂的流行病学模型的人类免疫缺陷病毒在乌干达有22个输入和18个输出，并发现增加历史匹配的效率，需要70%的时间和43%的模拟器评估相比，以前的方法的变体。深入了解人类免疫缺陷病毒模型的结构，并将其上的限制，然后进行了讨论。
Complex stochastic models are commonplace in epidemiology, but their utility depends on their calibration to empirical data. History matching is a (pre)calibration method that has been applied successfully to complex deterministic models. In this work, we adapt history matching to stochastic models, by emulating the variance in the model outputs, and therefore accounting for its dependence on the model's input values. The method proposed is applied to a real complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus in Uganda with 22 inputs and 18 outputs, and is found to increase the efficiency of history matching, requiring 70% of the time and 43% fewer simulator evaluations compared with a previous variant of the method. The insight gained into the structure of the human immunodeficiency virus model, and the constraints placed on it, are then discussed.