Long-term climate variations in China and global warming signals
Long-term climate variations in China and global warming signals
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DOI：
10.1029/2003jd003651
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发表时间：
2003-10-11
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Wu, RG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hu, ZZ;Yang, S;Wu, RG
[1]在这项工作中，作者分析了观测到的中国季节气候的长期变化，然后通过比较观测结果与耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 2）第二阶段的模拟结果，研究温室气体浓度增加对这些变化的可能影响。中国降水和气温的长期变化具有很强的季节依赖性。我国夏季降水的主要特征是北部偏干，中部偏湿。南方和中东部地区冬季降水量呈增加趋势。在过渡季节也发现了有趣的特征。春季降水变化与夏季基本相反。秋季除长江中下游地区外，全国降水量普遍减少。此外，中国东部和南部地区降水的季节性在近几十年来有所减弱。冬、春、秋三季，全国气温明显升高，尤其是北方。在夏季，中国中部的冷却趋势特别有趣，冷却（变暖）趋势通常与湿润（干燥）趋势并存。春、秋、冬三季降水与气温变化的相关性较弱。研究还发现，中国冬夏季气候的长期变化可能与印度洋海表温度的变暖趋势有关。将观测到的季节气候变化与16个模式的CMIP2模拟结果进行比较，发现中国冬、春、秋季气温的长期变化可能与温室气体浓度的增加有关。然而，这种联系在夏季温度中没有发现。在降水模拟中，各种模式之间的巨大不确定性使得很难将降水变化与全球变暖联系起来。
[1] In this work, the authors analyze the observed long-term variations of seasonal climate in China and then investigate the possible influence of increases in greenhouse gas concentrations on these variations by comparing the observations with the simulations of the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2). The long-term variations of precipitation and temperature in China are highly seasonally dependent. The main characteristic of summer precipitation in China is a drying trend in the north and a wetting trend in the central part. The precipitation in winter shows an increasing trend in southern and eastern-central China. Interesting features have also been found in the transitional seasons. In spring, precipitation variations are almost opposite to those in summer. In autumn the precipitation decreases in almost the whole country except for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley. In addition, the seasonality of precipitation has become slightly weaker in recent decades in southern and eastern China. Pronounced warming is observed in the entire country in winter, spring, and autumn, particularly in the northern part of China. In summer a cooling trend in central China is particularly interesting, and cooling ( warming) trends generally coexist with wetting ( drying) trends. The correlativity between precipitation and temperature variations is weak in spring, autumn, and winter. It has also been found that the long-term climate variations in winter and summer in China may be connected to the warming trend in the sea surface temperature of the Indian Ocean. A comparison between the observed seasonal climate variations and the CMIP2 simulations of 16 models indicates that the observed long-term variations of winter, spring, and autumn temperature in China may be associated with increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. However, such a connection is not found for the summer temperature. The tremendous uncertainties among the models in precipitation simulations make it difficult to link the precipitation variations to global warming.