Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data.
Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data.
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DOI：
10.2471/blt.20.265892
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发表时间：
2021-01-01
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Ioannidis JPA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ioannidis JPA
根据血清阳性率数据估计2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的感染病死率。我在PubMed和预印本服务器上搜索了截至2020年9月9日样本量≥ 500的COVID-19血清阳性率研究。我还从初步新闻稿和报告中检索到国家研究的其他结果。我评估了研究的设计特点和血清阳性率估计。我通过将COVID-19死亡的累计人数除以每个地区估计感染的人数来估计每个研究的感染死亡率。我校正了检测的免疫球蛋白（IG）类型（IgG、IgM、伊加）的数量。我包括61项研究（74项估计）和8项初步国家估计。血清阳性率估计值范围为0.02%至53.40%。感染病死率为0.00%~ 1.63%，校正值为0.00%~ 1.54%。在51个地点，COVID-19感染死亡率中位数为0.27%（修正0.23%）：在COVID-19人口死亡率低于全球平均水平的地区，这一比率为0.09%（< 118例死亡/百万人），COVID-19死亡人数为118-500例/百万人的地区为0. 20%，COVID-19死亡人数> 500例/百万人的地区为0. 57%。在年龄小于70岁的人群中，感染致死率范围为0.00%至0.31%，粗中位数和校正中位数为0.05%。COVID-19的感染死亡率在不同地区可能有很大差异，这可能反映了人口年龄结构、感染和死亡患者的病例组合以及其他因素的差异。推断的感染死亡率往往比大流行早期的估计低得多。
To estimate the infection fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from seroprevalence data. I searched PubMed and preprint servers for COVID-19 seroprevalence studies with a sample size ≥ 500 as of 9 September 2020. I also retrieved additional results of national studies from preliminary press releases and reports. I assessed the studies for design features and seroprevalence estimates. I estimated the infection fatality rate for each study by dividing the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths by the number of people estimated to be infected in each region. I corrected for the number of immunoglobin (Ig) types tested (IgG, IgM, IgA). I included 61 studies (74 estimates) and eight preliminary national estimates. Seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.02% to 53.40%. Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 1.63%, corrected values from 0.00% to 1.54%. Across 51 locations, the median COVID-19 infection fatality rate was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%): the rate was 0.09% in locations with COVID-19 population mortality rates less than the global average (< 118 deaths/million), 0.20% in locations with 118–500 COVID-19 deaths/million people and 0.57% in locations with > 500 COVID-19 deaths/million people. In people younger than 70 years, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.31% with crude and corrected medians of 0.05%. The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 can vary substantially across different locations and this may reflect differences in population age structure and case-mix of infected and deceased patients and other factors. The inferred infection fatality rates tended to be much lower than estimates made earlier in the pandemic.