Analysis of drought risk management strategies using dynamic inoperability input–output modeling and event tree analysis
Analysis of drought risk management strategies using dynamic inoperability input–output modeling and event tree analysis
复制标题
使用动态不可操作输入输出模型和事件树分析分析干旱风险管理策略
DOI：
10.1007/s10669-014-9514-5
复制
发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
K. Yu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Santos;S. Pagsuyoin;L. C. Herrera;R. Tan;K. Yu
摘要
预计气候变化将增加世界许多地区干旱的频率和强度。由于水是许多经济活动的基本资源，水资源短缺可能造成破坏，表现为工业产出损失。由于各经济部门之间固有的相互依存关系，这些影响可以通过经济系统传播。因此，干旱风险管理战略必须考虑到供水中断的直接和间接影响。在这项工作中，我们提出了一种方法来评估干旱管理战略相结合的经济投入产出模型与事件树分析。我们采用的方法来模拟干旱的情况下，影响美国国家首都地区。三个风险管理策略，即减少供水中断的初始水平，管理用水量，优先用水的依赖性，不可操作性水平和累积经济损失的基础上进行评估。结果表明，虽然管理水消费产生的累积经济损失在该地区最低，降低供水中断的初始水平和优先用水的依赖性，导致较低的关键部门的不操作性。这些研究结果为决策者确定关键部门和制定及时的干预战略提供了深刻的见解，以尽量减少干旱对经济系统的总体影响。此外，干旱风险评估的建模框架可以应用到其他地区，以评估干旱严重程度和管理策略的影响，在干旱时间轴。
Abstract
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in many parts of the world. Since water is an essential resource for many economic activities, water scarcity can cause disruptions that manifest as losses in industrial outputs. These effects can propagate through economic systems as a result of the inherent interdependencies among economic sectors. Risk management strategies for droughts must therefore account for both direct and indirect effects of water supply disruptions. In this work, we propose a methodology for evaluating drought management strategies by combining economic input–output modeling with event tree analysis. We apply the methodology to a simulated drought scenario affecting the United States National Capital Region. Three risk management strategies, namely, reducing the initial level of water supply disruption, managing water consumption, and prioritizing water-use dependencies, are evaluated based on inoperability levels and cumulative economic losses. Results show that while managing water consumption yields the lowest cumulative economic losses in the region, reducing the initial level of water supply disruption and prioritizing water-use dependencies result in lower inoperability of critical sectors. These findings provide insights for decision makers in identifying critical sectors and formulating timely intervention strategies that minimize the overall effects of drought to economic systems. Further, the proposed modeling framework for drought risk assessment can be applied to other regions to evaluate the effects of drought severity and management strategies over the drought timeline.