Internal variability in Arctic regional climate simulations: case study for the SHEBA year
Internal variability in Arctic regional climate simulations: case study for the SHEBA year
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北极区域气候模拟的内部变化：SHEBA 年的案例研究
DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Dethloff
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Rinke;P. Marbaix;K. Dethloff
评估泛北极区域区域气候模型 (RCM) 对横向边界强迫（通过不同的数值天气预报分析产品和各种温度扰动）和初始条件的敏感性。该研究的重点是1997年10月至1998年9月北冰洋表面热量收支项目期间的季节模拟。初始和/或横向边界条件中的小扰动可以使模型偏离驱动大尺度场，并且这种情况发生的程度取决于横向边界强迫对模型的控制，而不是扰动的起源。模型对扰动的响应不取决于扰动的类型，并且在很大程度上独立于扰动的幅度和来源。小和大的温度扰动对月平均大气模式和均方根差都有类似的影响，但模型响应取决于季节。发现了内部变率的两种情况：(1)秋/冬季较大的变率和(2)夏季较小的变率在讨论北极RCM中气候变化和气候敏感性信号的重要性时必须考虑内部变率的显着幅度。
The sensitivity of a regional climate model (RCM) to lateral boundary forcing (by different numerical weather prediction analysis products and by various temperature perturbations) and to the initial conditions is evaluated for a pan-Arctic domain. The Study focuses on seasonal simulations over the period of the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean project from October 1997 to September 1998. Small perturbations in the initial and/or lateral boundary conditions can make the model diverge from driving large-scale fields, and the extent to which this Occurs depends on the control of the model by the lateral boundary forcing, not on the origin of the perturbation. The model response to a perturbation does not depend on the type of perturbation, and it is largely independent of the magnitude as well as of the source of the perturbation. Both small and large temperature perturbations have similar consequences for the monthly mean atmospheric patterns and the root mean square difference, but the model response depends on the season. Two regimes in the internal variability were found: (1) large variability in autumn/winter and (2) smaller variability in summer The pronounced magnitude of internal variability must be taken into account in discussing the significance of climate change and climate sensitivity signals in Arctic RCMs.