Universal behavior in a generalized model of contagion
Universal behavior in a generalized model of contagion
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DOI：
10.1103/physrevlett.92.218701
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发表时间：
2004-05-28
影响因子：
8.6
通讯作者：
Watts, DJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dodds, PS;Watts, DJ
传染模型广泛出现在生物科学和社会科学中，其应用范围从传染病的传播到文化时尚的传播。在这封信中，我们介绍了一个通用的传染模型，通过明确纳入过去的接触，例如，传染性病原体，谣言，或新产品的记忆，包括现有的传染模型的主要特征，并在它们之间插值。我们得到一个简单版本的模型的精确解，发现在一般条件下，只有三类集体动力学存在。此外，我们发现，对于一个给定的内存长度，一个特定的系统福尔斯属于的类是由只有两个参数。我们的模型提出了新的措施来评估人口的易感性，以大的传染性事件，也是一个可能的策略，以抑制或促进他们。
Models of contagion arise broadly in both the biological and the social sciences, with applications ranging from the transmission of infectious diseases to the spread of cultural fads. In this Letter, we introduce a general model of contagion which, by explicitly incorporating memory of past exposures to, for example, an infectious agent, rumor, or new product, includes the main features of existing contagion models and interpolates between them. We obtain exact solutions for a simple version of the model, finding that under general conditions only three classes of collective dynamics exist. Furthermore, we find that, for a given length of memory, the class into which a particular system falls is determined by only two parameters. Our model suggests novel measures for assessing the susceptibility of a population to large contagion events, and also a possible strategy for inhibiting or facilitating them.