Road accidents and rainfall in a large Australian city
Road accidents and rainfall in a large Australian city
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DOI：
10.1016/j.aap.2005.06.025
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发表时间：
2006-05-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Simmonds, I
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Keay, K;Simmonds, I
我们调查了1987-2002年澳大利亚墨尔本大都市地区降雨对日常道路交通事故的影响。我们从几个角度分析了事故数量，这已被归一化为交通量的变化，表明降雨的影响是多方面的。由于存在很大的非线性趋势，将其分为三个时期（1987-1991年、1992-1996年和1997-2002年）。名义白天和夜间，以及3小时的原始计数仅适用于前两个时期。一般来说，整个时期的降雨量的影响表现出一种趋势，秋季较大的值，春季较小的值。对于日常、白天和夜间情况，从第一至第二时期，体积归一化干和湿平均值均减少约40%。由于第二个时期比第一个时期更潮湿，并且干燥和潮湿的情况都以类似的方式受到影响，那么看起来。一种非天气的影响正在发挥作用。有人建议，执法措施可能在很大程度上是负责任的。我们得到了一个保守的估计，在潮湿的条件下，3小时的干，湿期间在前两个时代（1987-1996年）的匹配对分析的基础上，事故的相对风险。与其他研究一样，我们发现，在几乎所有情况下，风险大于1，这表明降雨的存在始终代表着驾驶危险。干旱期后发生的降雨随着持续时间的增加，对交通量标准化事故计数的影响更大。干旱期的影响在按雨类细分时更清楚地描述。一般来说，随着干旱持续时间和降雨量的增加，第一次下雨时干旱的影响会增加。(c)2005爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
We investigate the impact of rainfall on daily road accidents in the metropolitan area of Melbourne, Australia, over 1987-2002. Our analysis from several viewpoints of the accident count, which has been normalised for variation in traffic volume, indicated that the effect of rainfall is multifaceted. Owing to a large non-linear trend a subdivision into three epochs (1987-1991, 1992-1996 and 1997-2002) was made. Nominal daytime and nighttime as well as 3 h raw counts were available for the first two epochs only.Generally, the effect of rainfall across the epochs shows a tendency for larger values in autumn with smaller values in spring. For the daily, daytime and nighttime cases there is an approximate 40% decrease in both the volume-normalised dry and wet means from the first to second epoch. Since the second epoch is wetter than the first, and both dry and wet cases are affected in a similar way, then it appears that. a non-weather influence is at work. It is suggested that law enforcement measures may be largely responsible.We obtained a conservative estimate of relative risk of an accident in wet conditions based on a matched-pair analysis of 3 h dry and wet periods over the first two epochs (1987-1996). As with other studies we find that the risk is greater than unity in almost all cases suggesting that the presence of rainfall consistently represents a driving hazard.Rainfall occurring after a dry spell has an enhanced effect on the volume-normalised accident count as the spell duration increases. The effect of dry spells is more clearly described when broken down by rain class. Generally, there is an increase in the impact of a dry spell when it first rains as the spell duration and rainfall amount increase. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.