Implications of Warm Pool Bias in CMIP6 Models on the Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Subtropical Jet and Precipitation
Implications of Warm Pool Bias in CMIP6 Models on the Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Subtropical Jet and Precipitation
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DOI：
10.1029/2023gl104896
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发表时间：
2023-07
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Xinhuiyu Liu;K. Grise
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xinhuiyu Liu;K. Grise
尽管多模式的平均值与观测值相比很好，但大多数最新的气候模型都没有模拟出印度-太平洋暖池在当今气候下的真实规模。这项研究探索了这种暖池大小偏差在北半球冬季气候模型中的含义。耦合模式比较项目模式第6阶段的暖池大小偏差与副热带急流和降水分布有关，无论是在当今气候中，还是通过温带Rossby波列和热带环流路径对气候变化作出反应。在这些关系的基础上，制定了新的约束条件，以在观测上限制亚洲和大西洋上空未来的副热带急流反应以及北美和中美洲上空的降水反应，这有助于减少未来对这些特征的预测的不确定性。因此，对现今气候中暖池的准确模式模拟对于未来副热带急流和降水的预测是重要的。
Although the multi‐model average compares well with observations, individually most of the latest climate models do not simulate a realistic size of the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool in the present‐day climate. This study explores the implications of this warm pool size bias in climate models in Northern Hemisphere winter. The warm pool size bias in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models is related to the subtropical jet and precipitation distribution, both in the present‐day climate and in response to climate change, through extratropical Rossby wave trains and tropical circulation pathways. Based on these relationships, emergent constraints are developed to observationally constrain the future subtropical jet response over Asia and the Atlantic Ocean and precipitation response over North and Central America, which can help to reduce uncertainty in future projections of these features. Thus, accurate model simulation of the warm pool in the present‐day climate is important for future projections of the subtropical jet and precipitation.