Determining and Quantifying Hazard Chains and their Contribution to Incident Probabilities in Flight Operation
Determining and Quantifying Hazard Chains and their Contribution to Incident Probabilities in Flight Operation
复制标题
确定和量化危险链及其对飞行运行中事故概率的贡献
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
F. Holzapfel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Drees;F. Holzapfel
目前，航空公司内部定义的安全水平在很大程度上受到安全经理或专家建议的影响。此外，统计和概率方法在飞行运行数据(FOD)评估中的应用还很少。我们的研究重点是基于单一航空公司的FOD来计算名义事故概率。本文描述了通过加入特定于事故的危险和危险链(危险的组合)来改进事故概率的计算。这种方法将系统故障、人为错误或不利天气条件等危险因素考虑在内，如果没有这些危险因素，事件概率就不能准确地反映真实的飞行操作。这类事件也助长了事件，增加了事件发生的可能性。首先，我们使用FOD或维护数据确定这些事件的概率。基于这些事件，我们构建危险链，以便识别导致正在评估的事故的最有可能的错误路径(可能只由一个危险组成)。然后，利用我们的仿真模型评估了这些危险因素对事故概率的影响。我们得到的概率是条件概率。通过应用关于条件概率的贝叶斯定理，我们能够量化事件概率，其中既包括促成因素的极端非危险值，也包括可能的危险和危险链。我们将所提出的方法应用于突发事件类型跑道超限的例子。
Currently, the safety level defined within an airline is heavily influenced by the perception of safety managers or expert advice. Furthermore, statistical and probabilistic methods are only marginally applied in the evaluation of Flight Operation Data (FOD). Our research focuses on calculating nominal incident probabilities based on the FOD of a single airline. This paper describes improvement to the calculation of incident probabilities by incorporating incident-specific hazards and hazard chains, a combination of hazards. This method takes hazards such as system failures, human error, or adverse weather conditions into consideration, without which the incident probabilities do not accurately reflect real flight operation. Such events also contribute to incidents and increase the probability of their occurrence. First, we determine the probability of these events using FOD or maintenance data. Based on those events, we build hazard chains in order to identify the most likely error paths (which might consist of only one single hazard) leading to the incident being evaluated. Then, we assess the impact of these hazards on the incident probability by using our simulation model. The probabilities we obtain are conditional probabilities. By applying Bayes’s theorem on the conditional probabilities, we are then able to quantify incident probabilities, which include both extreme non-hazardous values of contributing factors and possible hazards and hazard chains. We apply our proposed method to the example of an incident type runway overrun.