Fast Linked Analyses for Scenario-Based Hierarchies
Fast Linked Analyses for Scenario-Based Hierarchies
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基于场景的层次结构的快速链接分析
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-9876.2012.01042.x
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Williamson D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Williamson D
当使用计算机模型提供政策支持时，通常会遇到只测试少数可行或理想化决策情景的集合。我们提出了一种新的方法，用于执行复杂模型的多级仿真作为预定义类内的任何决定的函数，该预定义类具体使用场景合奏的机会，在快速或早期版本的模拟器和小的，精心挑选的，设计我们当前感兴趣的模拟器。该方法利用了贝叶斯推理的几何方法，并且被设计为快速，通过允许我们非常快速地进行许多分析来促进我们的仿真器的详细诊断检查。我们的激励应用程序涉及构建一个模拟器，为英国气象局哈德利中心耦合气候模型HadCM 3作为二氧化碳强迫的函数，这是一个“快速”计划交付给英国气象局资助的自然环境研究理事会的一部分。我们的应用程序涉及严重的时间压力，以及有限的访问运行的HadCM3和一个场景合奏的机会，在一个较低的分辨率版本的模型。
When using computer models to provide policy support it is normal to encounter ensembles that test only a handful of feasible or idealized decision scenarios. We present a new methodology for performing multilevel emulation of a complex model as a function of any decision within a predefined class that makes specific use of a scenario ensemble of opportunity on a fast or early version of a simulator and a small, well-chosen, design on our current simulator of interest. The method exploits a geometrical approach to Bayesian inference and is designed to be fast, to facilitate detailed diagnostic checking of our emulators by allowing us to carry out many analyses very quickly. Our motivating application involved constructing an emulator for the UK Met Office Hadley Centre coupled climate model HadCM3 as a function of carbon dioxide forcing, which was part of a ‘RAPID’ programme deliverable to the UK Met Office funded by the Natural Environment Research Council. Our application involved severe time pressure as well as limited access to runs of HadCM3 and a scenario ensemble of opportunity on a lower resolution version of the model.