From “Hindu Growth” to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition
From “Hindu Growth” to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition
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从“印度式增长”到生产力激增：印度增长转型之谜
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.529064
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
A. Subramanian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Rodrik;A. Subramanian
本文探讨了 1980 年左右印度生产率飙升的原因，这比印度开始认真的经济改革早了十多年。贸易自由化、扩张性需求、有利的外部环境以及农业绩效的改善并没有发挥作用。我们发现有证据表明，触发因素可能是 20 世纪 80 年代初政府的态度转变，与 1990 年代的改革不同，政府的态度是亲商而不是亲市场，有利于现有企业的利益，而不是新进入者或消费者的利益。一个相对较小的转变就会引发巨大的生产率反应，因为印度距离其收入可能性边界还很远。过去几十年建立起来的注册制造业在决定哪些州利用变化的环境方面发挥了重要作用。
This paper explores the causes of India's productivity surge around 1980, more than a decade before serious economic reforms were initiated. Trade liberalization, expansionary demand, a favorable external environment, and improved agricultural performance did not play a role. We find evidence that the trigger may have been an attitudinal shift by the government in the early 1980s that, unlike the reforms of the 1990s, was probusiness rather than promarket in character, favoring the interests of existing businesses rather than new entrants or consumers. A relatively small shift elicited a large productivity response, because India was far away from its incomepossibility frontier. Registered manufacturing, which had been built up in previous decades, played an important role in determining which states took advantage of the changed environment.