Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change
Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change
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DOI：
10.1029/2010gl043991
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发表时间：
2010-07-21
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Jones, Andy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Andrews, Timothy;Forster, Piers M.;Jones, Andy
辐射强迫是预测平衡全球气温变化的有用工具。然而，它对预测全球降水变化没有那么有用，因为降水的变化在很大程度上取决于气候变化机制及其如何扰乱大气和地表能量收支。在这里，一套气候模型实验和辐射传输计算被用来量化和评估一系列气候变化机制的这种依赖。结果表明，降水响应可分为两个部分：与辐射强迫大气分量强烈相关的快速大气响应和与气候变化机制无关的对全球地表温度变化的较慢响应，类似于每单位全球地表温度变化2-3%。我们强调，对黑碳气溶胶强迫的降水响应落在这个范围内，尽管有一个与辐射强迫和全球气温变化相反的平衡响应。引文：Andrews，T.，P.M.Forster，O.Boucher，N.Bellouin和A.Jones(2010)，《降水、辐射强迫和全球温度变化》，地球物理学。莱特，37，L14701，DOI：10.1029/2010GL043991。
Radiative forcing is a useful tool for predicting equilibrium global temperature change. However, it is not so useful for predicting global precipitation changes, as changes in precipitation strongly depend on the climate change mechanism and how it perturbs the atmospheric and surface energy budgets. Here a suite of climate model experiments and radiative transfer calculations are used to quantify and assess this dependency across a range of climate change mechanisms. It is shown that the precipitation response can be split into two parts: a fast atmospheric response that strongly correlates with the atmospheric component of radiative forcing, and a slower response to global surface temperature change that is independent of the climate change mechanism, similar to 2-3% per unit of global surface temperature change. We highlight the precipitation response to black carbon aerosol forcing as falling within this range despite having an equilibrium response that is of opposite sign to the radiative forcing and global temperature change. Citation: Andrews, T., P. M. Forster, O. Boucher, N. Bellouin, and A. Jones (2010), Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14701, doi: 10.1029/2010GL043991.