Social protection in the face of climate change: targeting principles and financing mechanisms
Social protection in the face of climate change: targeting principles and financing mechanisms
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DOI：
10.1017/s1355770x17000407
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发表时间：
2015-11
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
M. Carter;S. Janzen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Carter;S. Janzen
摘要本文建立了一个多代家庭消费、积累和风险管理模型，以评估气候风险暴露的动态后果。该模型纳入了消费不足的长期影响，诱导最佳的“资产平滑”应对行为的弱势群体，对贫困。分析表明，通过将"以能力为目标的社会保障"纳入传统的社会保障制度，可以改善长期贫困的程度和深度。该文件还表明，以保险为基础的、以能力为目标的社会保障在实物转移和以资产为基础的、以能力为目标的保护中占主导地位（在经济增长和减贫措施中）。然后，我们对社会保障机制进行了压力测试，发现在当前对干旱风险增加的悲观预测下，以保险为基础的能力为目标的社会保障的相对绩效有所改善。然而，如果干旱风险的增加超过目前的气候变化预测，那么即使是以可持续性为目标的政策也失去了稳定贫困范围和深度的能力。
Abstract This paper builds a multi-generation household model of consumption, accumulation, and risk management to assess the dynamic consequences of climate risk exposure. The model incorporates long-term impacts of consumption shortfalls, induced by optimal ‘asset smoothing’ coping behavior of the vulnerable, on poverty. The analysis shows the long-term level and depth of poverty can be improved by incorporating ‘vulnerability-targeted social protection’ into a conventional social protection system. The paper further shows insurance-based vulnerability-targeted social protection dominates (in economic growth and poverty reduction measures) both in-kind transfers and asset-based vulnerability-targeted protection. We then stress test social protection mechanisms and find the relative performance of insurance-based vulnerability-targeted social protection improves when subjected to current pessimistic projections about increasing drought risk. However, if drought risk increases beyond current climate change projections, then even the vulnerability-targeted policy loses its ability to stabilize the extent and depth of poverty.