Time sequence and the recurrence models for large earthquakes along the Nankai trough revisited
Time sequence and the recurrence models for large earthquakes along the Nankai trough revisited
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DOI：
10.1029/96gl01037
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发表时间：
1996-05-15
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Kumagai, H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kumagai, H
建议用时间可预报的复发模型而不是滑动可预报的复发模型来解释地震时间序列。然而，模型的可靠性主要取决于数据的准确性;遗漏大事件严重影响模型的评估。虽然时间可预报模式可以解释沿着南海海槽自公元1707年以来的最近三次大事件，但当该模式应用于更老的事件时，存在严重的差异。最近的考古研究发现了历史文献中遗漏的沿着低谷的新事件。我发现，随着考古发现的新事件的增加，复发模型可以应用于更老的事件，并且包括这些新事件的时间序列表明，在1000年的时间间隔内，可以预测复发模式。
It is suggested that time sequence of earthquakes call be explained by the time-predictable recurrence model rather than the slip-predictable recurrence model. However, the reliability of the model depends primarily on data accuracy; missing large events seriously affect the evaluation of the models. Although the time-predictable model can explain the recent three large events along the Nankai trough back to A.D. 1707, there was serious discrepancy when the model was applied to older events. Recent archeological studies have discovered new events along the trough missed in historical documents. I found that with the addition of the archeologically discovered new events the recurrence models can be applied to older events, and that the time sequence including these new events suggests a time-predictable recurrence pattern over a 1000-year interval.