Estimates of HIV prevalence in a highly endemic area of China: Dehong Prefecture, Yunnan Province
Estimates of HIV prevalence in a highly endemic area of China: Dehong Prefecture, Yunnan Province
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DOI：
10.1093/ije/dyn196
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发表时间：
2008-12-01
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Vermund, Sten H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jia, Yujiang;Sun, Jiangping;Vermund, Sten H.
背景中国云南省德宏州与缅甸接壤。它靠近世界上最大的非法毒品生产和分销中心之一的金三角，助长了毒品贩运和海洛因的现成供应。德洪的110万人面临着严重的艾滋病毒问题，这是由注射毒品引起的。本研究的目的是提高2005年估计的真实状态的艾滋病毒/艾滋病在德宏Prefecture.Methods我们估计的艾滋病毒感染率综合的结果，从几个数据源（艾滋病毒/艾滋病病例报告，调查，监测活动和流行病学研究）。结果德宏州HIV感染率为1.3%，其中以产前诊断为基础的估计值为1.5%，以流行病学为基础的动态模型为1.3%，以流行病学为基础的动态模型为1.4%，以流行病学为基础的动态模型为1.5（可能范围从三个估计值的低/高：0.91.7），因此2005年德宏州有13500人感染艾滋病毒/艾滋病（可能范围：820018300）。感染仍然集中在注射毒品使用者，女性性工作者和他们的客户估计cases.Conclusion地理分布不均，可以通过合成多个数据源，使用几个程序更可靠的估计艾滋病毒的流行。无论采用何种建模策略，德宏州目前的艾滋病毒预防、护理和治疗挑战都是巨大的。
Background Dehong Prefecture in Yunnan Province, China, borders Myanmar. Its proximity to the Golden Triangle, one of the worlds largest illicit drug production and distribution centre, contributes to drug trafficking and ready availability of heroin. Dehongs 1.1 million people confront a serious HIV problem fuelled by injection drug use. The aim of this study is to improve the 2005 estimates of the true status of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Dehong Prefecture.Methods We estimated the HIV prevalence by synthesizing the results from several data sources (HIV/AIDS case reports, surveys, surveillance activities and epidemiological studies). We applied three different statistical procedures for estimations: (i) The Workbook method, adapted to meet the estimation needs in Dehong Prefecture; (ii) An estimate based on antenatal clinical data; and (iii) a dynamic model based on the local epidemic pattern.Results We estimated that the population prevalence for HIV infections in Dehong Prefecture is 1.3 (likely range from low/high of three estimates: 0.91.7) such that 13 500 people were living with HIV/AIDS in Dehong Prefecture (likely range: 820018 300) in 2005. Infections remain concentrated among injection drug users, female sex workers and their clients with an uneven geographical distribution of estimated cases.Conclusion More reliable estimates of HIV prevalence can be made by synthesizing multiple data sources using several procedures. Current HIV prevention, care and treatment challenges are judged substantial in Dehong Prefecture, regardless of what modelling strategy is used.