Selecting Portfolios of Water Supply and Demand Management Strategies Under Uncertainty-Contrasting Economic Optimisation and 'Robust Decision Making' Approaches
Selecting Portfolios of Water Supply and Demand Management Strategies Under Uncertainty-Contrasting Economic Optimisation and 'Robust Decision Making' Approaches
复制标题
不确定性对比经济优化和“稳健决策”方法下供水和需求管理策略组合的选择
DOI：
10.1007/s11269-012-0118-x
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Matrosov E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Matrosov E
规划新的供水和需求管理措施的适当组合，需要在一个基本上未知的未来考虑一系列广泛的选择及其相互作用。各种建模辅助方法可用于帮助这一规划过程。本文将两个这样的框架应用于英国的泰晤士河水资源系统，并比较了它们的方法和结果：它们如何考虑不确定性，它们如何表示供需管理选项，以及它们各自推荐的计划。第一种方法是目前英格兰和威尔士的行业标准：考虑资本、运营(固定和可变)、社会和环境成本，在25年至30年的时间范围内进行年度最低成本产能扩张优化。第二种方法使用随机模拟和后悔分析来选择首选方案，然后使用统计聚类分析来确定系统故障的原因，从而实现进一步的计划改进。当迭代地应用于系统规划者时，第二种方法被称为稳健决策(RDM)。经济最优化方法考虑了供应和保护计划的所有合理组合，并建议实施成本最低的时间表。我们的RDM应用程序考虑的选项数量较少，但对不确定性(考虑了供应、需求和能源价格不确定性)对系统性能的多个标准的影响进行了更详细的评估。这种基于模拟的方法还可以在供应和需求管理方案之间实现更现实的交互。这两种方法都推荐了不同的计划，我们通过讨论每种方法的优点和局限性来解释。建议联合应用，以产生考虑到各种期货的多个表现标准而稳健的最低成本计划。
Planning appropriate portfolios of new water supplies and demand management measures requires considering a wide array of options and their interactions over a largely unknown future. Various modelling-assisted approaches are available to help this planning process. This paper applies two such frameworks to the UK’s Thames water resource system and compares their methods and outputs: how they consider uncertainty, how they represent supply and demand management options, and what plans each recommends. The first method is the current England and Wales industry standard: annual least-cost capacity expansion optimisation over a 25 to 30 year time horizon considering capital, operating (fixed and variable), social and environmental costs. The second approach uses stochastic simulation and regret analysis to select a preferred alternative, then statistical cluster analysis to identify causes of system failure enabling further plan improvement. When applied iteratively with system planners this second approach is referred to as Robust Decision Making (RDM). The economic optimisation approach considers all plausible combinations of supply and conservation schemes and recommends the least-cost schedule of their implementation. Our RDM application considers a smaller number of options but makes a more detailed assessment of the effect of uncertainty (supply, demand and energy price uncertainty were considered) on multiple criteria of system performance. The simulation-based approach also enables more realistic interaction amongst supply and demand management schemes. Both approaches recommended different plans which we explain by discussing the benefits and limitations of each. Joint application is recommended to produce least-cost plans that are robust considering multiple criteria of performance across a wide range of futures.