Both air-sea components are crucial for El Niño forecast from boreal spring.
Both air-sea components are crucial for El Niño forecast from boreal spring.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-018-28964-z
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发表时间：
2018-07-12
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Mu M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fang XH;Mu M
春季的可预报性障碍严重限制了我们从北方春季和跨越北方春季预测厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的能力。我们的观测分析表明，在北方春季期间，如果有效地考虑来自海洋和大气的信息，春季可预报障碍(SPB)可以大大减少。由一个简单的四元线性回归模型确定的赤道中东太平洋海温异常的预测值与观测值之间的相关系数在1980-2016年间为0.81。北半球春季ENSO演变的框架结构主要受赤道太平洋海洋热含量和热带西太平洋纬向风应力的影响。这些结果表明，要预报超前时间较长的ENSO事件，即大大减少SPB，首先应很好地预报北半球春季期间海洋和大气的变化。虽然海洋信息主要位于赤道太平洋，并具有延迟振子和再充电振子模型的良好特征，但大气变化可能包含该区域以外的信息，处理起来更加困难。
The spring predictability barrier severely limits our ability to forecast the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from and across the boreal spring. Our observational analysis shows that the spring predictability barrier (SPB) can be largely reduced when information from both the ocean and atmosphere are effectively taken into account during the boreal spring. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial central–eastern Pacific determined by a simple quaternary linear regression model is >0.81 for the period 1980–2016. The frame structure of the ENSO evolution is mostly controlled by variations in the oceanic heat content along the equatorial Pacific and the zonal wind stress over the tropical western Pacific during the boreal spring. These results indicate that to predict ENSO events with a long lead time, i.e., largely reducing the SPB, variations in both the ocean and atmosphere during the boreal spring should be well predicted first. While the oceanic information is mainly located in the equatorial Pacific and well characterized by the delayed oscillator and recharging oscillator models, variations in the atmosphere may contain information beyond this area and are more difficult to deal with.
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影响因子：
4.6
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