Take me to your leader: Using socio-technical energy transitions (STET) modelling to explore the role of actors in decarbonisation pathways
Take me to your leader: Using socio-technical energy transitions (STET) modelling to explore the role of actors in decarbonisation pathways
复制标题
带我去见你的领导者：使用社会技术能源转型 (STET) 模型来探索参与者在脱碳途径中的作用
DOI：
10.1016/j.erss.2018.12.010
复制
发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Li F
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li F
支持国家和全球脱碳途径的定量建模分析对于根据《巴黎协定》实现全球气候稳定从未如此重要。然而，既定的均衡和优化模型往往从根本上简化了他们对社会和政治/机构行为者的描述。这可能使它们难以用于在短期内实施具体的能源和气候政策，并使这些政策与长期目标保持一致。大多数能源系统分析继续将这种技术经济模型与关于未来政治和社会发展的完全定性的叙述相结合。其结果是，这些关键因素往往在随后的话语中逐渐消失。在本文中，我们利用蓝色-领先的社会技术能源转型（STET）模型的英国（UK）的能源系统-捕捉社会和政治驱动因素的异质性，一致性和共同进化的元素。我们专注于探索政府主导和社会主导的能源转型，并研究其脱碳途径和最终状态的差异。我们的建模工作发现，最关键的不是谁领导本身，而是领导者和追随者的初始努力和后续承诺的水平，这似乎调节了脱碳途径展开的速度。然而，在所有情况下，系统性惯性意味着最深层次的脱碳目标似乎仍然很难实现。
Quantitative modelling analysis in support of national and global decarbonisation pathways has never been more important to achieving global climate stabilisation in line with the Paris Agreement. However, established equilibrium and optimisation models tend to radically simplify their depiction of societal and political/institutional actors. This can make them difficult to use for implementing specific energy and climate policies in the near term and aligning these with long term targets. Most energy systems analysis continues to pair such techno-economic models with entirely qualitative narratives about future political and societal developments. The result is that these critical factors often fade into the background in subsequent discourse. In this paper, we utilise BLUE – a leading socio-technical energy transition (STET) model of the United Kingdom’s (UK) energy system – to capture elements of the heterogeneity, consistency and co-evolution of societal and political drivers. We focus specifically on exploring government-led and societally-led energy transitions and investigating the differences in their decarbonisation pathways and end states. Our modelling exercise finds that it is not who leads per se that is the most critical, but rather the level of the initial effort and subsequent commitment from both leader and follower actors that appears to regulate the pace at which decarbonisation pathways unfold. However, systemic inertia in all cases means that the deepest decarbonisation targets continue to appear very difficult to achieve.