The effects of exchange rate variability on international trade: a meta-regression analysis
The effects of exchange rate variability on international trade: a meta-regression analysis
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汇率波动对国际贸易的影响：元回归分析
DOI：
10.1080/00036840801964500
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发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
G. Pugh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Ćorić;G. Pugh
汇率变动的贸易效应是近30年来国际经济学研究的一个热点问题。本文的贡献是应用元回归分析（MRA）的实证文献。平均而言，汇率变动对国际贸易产生负面影响。然而，多边贸易协定确认了这一结果是高度有条件的，它确定了有助于解释为什么估计的贸易影响从显著的负面到显著的正面不等的因素。关于实证研究结果明显不一致的多边风险评估证据可能对政策有指导意义：首先，确定平均贸易效应不足以在各国普遍适用;其次，表明对冲机会-因此金融发展-对贸易促进的重要性。对于MRA的实践，我们提出了一个案例，检查结果的鲁棒性方面的估计技术，模型规格和样本。
The trade effects of exchange rate variability have been an issue in international economics for the past 30 years. The contribution of this article is to apply meta-regression analysis (MRA) to the empirical literature. On average, exchange rate variability exerts a negative effect on international trade. Yet MRA confirms the view that this result is highly conditional, by identifying factors that help to explain why estimated trade effects vary from significantly negative to significantly positive. MRA evidence on the pronounced heterogeneity of the empirical findings may be instructive for policy: first, by establishing that average trade effects are not sufficiently robust to generalize across countries; and second, by suggesting the importance of hedging opportunities – hence of financial development – for trade promotion. For the practice of MRA, we make a case for checking the robustness of results with respect to estimation technique, model specification and sample.
报告 Prog,Polgm,Phys,Jpn.第 28-611 卷 (1985)。
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