Evidence for transmission of COVID-19 prior to symptom onset
Evidence for transmission of COVID-19 prior to symptom onset
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DOI：
10.7554/elife.57149
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发表时间：
2020-06-22
期刊：
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Colijn, Caroline
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Tindale, Lauren C.;Stockdale, Jessica E.;Colijn, Caroline
我们整理了来自新加坡和中国天津COVID-19聚集的接触者追踪数据，并通过估计潜伏期和连续间隔来估计症状前传播的程度。新加坡和天津的中间病例的平均潜伏期分别为4.91天（95%CI 4.35，5.69）和7.54天（95%CI 6.76，8.56）。平均连续间隔为4.17（95%CI 2.44，5.89）和4.31（95%CI 2.91，5.72）天（新加坡，天津）。连续间隔时间短于潜伏期，表明症状前传播可能发生在很大比例的传播事件中（在我们的分析中，有中间病例的病例数为0.4-0.5，新加坡为0.6-0.8，无中间病例的病例数更多）。鉴于症状前传播的证据，即使是看似健康的个人也必须遵守公共卫生措施以控制COVID-19。
We collated contact tracing data from COVID-19 clusters in Singapore and Tianjin, China and estimated the extent of pre-symptomatic transmission by estimating incubation periods and serial intervals. The mean incubation periods accounting for intermediate cases were 4.91 days (95%CI 4.35, 5.69) and 7.54 (95%CI 6.76, 8.56) days for Singapore and Tianjin, respectively. The mean serial interval was 4.17 (95%CI 2.44, 5.89) and 4.31 (95%CI 2.91, 5.72) days (Singapore, Tianjin). The serial intervals are shorter than incubation periods, suggesting that pre-symptomatic transmission may occur in a large proportion of transmission events (0.4-0.5 in Singapore and 0.6-0.8 in Tianjin, in our analysis with intermediate cases, and more without intermediates). Given the evidence for pre-symptomatic transmission, it is vital that even individuals who appear healthy abide by public health measures to control COVID-19.