The waves of containerization: shifts in global maritime transportation
The waves of containerization: shifts in global maritime transportation
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2013.12.003
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发表时间：
2012-06
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
D. Guerrero;J.P. Rodrigue
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Guerrero;J.P. Rodrigue
本文通过对全球集装箱港口发展的康德拉季耶夫波（K波）阶段的分析，提供了集装箱化循环行为的证据。与任何技术创新一样，集装箱具有功能（在运输链内）和地理扩散潜力，最终会达到成熟阶段。全球集装箱港口系统的证据表明，集装箱化经历了五次主要的连续浪潮，其势头从发达经济体转向发展中经济体，但也发生在特定地区。这些浪潮说明了全球经济中重大的宏观经济、技术、有时还有政治的转变。他们没有解释原因，而只是解释集装箱运输量分布和增长（或下降）的后果。然而，它们提供了强有力的证据，表明集装箱化具有周期性行为，并且最终达到拐点，标志着集装箱化在特定港口或港口范围内扩散的结束。因此，对集装箱化增长的未来预期需要从经济周期的角度而不是线性的角度来评估。
This paper provides evidence of the cyclic behavior of containerization through an analysis of the phases of a Kondratieff wave (K-wave) of global container ports development. The container, like any technical innovation, has a functional (within transport chains) and geographical diffusion potential where a phase of maturity is eventually reached. Evidence from the global container port system suggests five main successive waves of containerization with a shift of the momentum from advanced economies to developing economies, but also within specific regions. These waves are illustrative of major macroeconomic, technological and sometimes political shifts within the global economy. They do not explain the causes, but simply the consequences in the distribution in container traffic and growth (or decline). Yet, they provide strong evidence that containerization has a cyclic behavior and that inflection points are eventually reached, marking the end of the diffusion of containerization in a specific port or port range. Future expectations about the growth of containerization thus need to be assessed within an economic cycle perspective instead of the rather linear perspectives.