Will they stay or will they go? Simulating the dynamics of single-holder farms in a dualistic farm structure in Slovakia.
Will they stay or will they go? Simulating the dynamics of single-holder farms in a dualistic farm structure in Slovakia.
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他们会留下还是会离开？
DOI：
10.1111/j.1744-7976.2009.01167.x
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Konrad Kellermann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Happe;H. Schnicke;C. Sahrbacher;Konrad Kellermann
在斯洛伐克共和国尼特拉地区的二元农场结构中，本文研究了农场退出和单一所有者农场(SF)进入之间的动态相互作用。我们的重点是农业退出的经济和非经济原因。研究了改变继任可能性和初始农场经营者年龄分布的影响。应用了一个基于主体的农业结构变化模拟模型，该模型集合了农场内部和外部的决定因素，并产生了一系列内生调整反应。我们表明，斯洛伐克逐步实行共同农业政策的直接支付对其结构发展产生了重大影响。在中短期内，作为对这项政策的回应，二元农场结构和特定的农场年龄结构仍然存在。分阶段支付会说服顺丰留下，并说服潜在的继任者加入。从长远来看，最初的异质农场结构变得越来越同质化，走向更大的SF。小型SF在中长期内的流行并不一定是既定的。这可能会导致决策者重新考虑单个农场在农村发展中的作用。版权所有(C)2009加拿大农业经济学会。
"This paper investigates the dynamic interplay between farm exit and entry of single-holder farms (SF) in a dualistic farm structure in the Nitra region of the Slovak Republic. Our focus is on economic and noneconomic reasons for farm exit. The impact of varying both the likelihood of succession and the initial farm operator age distributions is studied. An agent-based simulation model of structural change in agriculture is applied, which brings together farm-internal and -external determinants and creates a set of endogenous adjustment reactions. We show that the stepwise introduction of direct payments of the Common Agricultural Policy in Slovakia has a strong impact on its structural development. In the short- to medium-term, the dualistic farm structure together with a specific age structure of farms still persists as a response to the policy. The phasing-in of payments persuades SF to stay and potential successors to enter. In the longer run, the initially heterogeneous farm structure becomes increasingly homogeneous toward larger SF. The prevalence of small SF in the medium- to long-term is not necessarily a given. This may lead decision makers to reconsider the role of individual farms in rural development." Copyright (c) 2009 Canadian Agricultural Economics Society.