Application of an experimental approach to management of a tropical multispecies fishery with highly uncertain dynamics
Application of an experimental approach to management of a tropical multispecies fishery with highly uncertain dynamics
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实验方法在动态高度不确定的热带多物种渔业管理中的应用
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发表时间：
1991
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通讯作者：
K. Sainsbury
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作者：
K. Sainsbury
在大多数多物种渔业中，在选择一个应用程序来表示资源动态的模型时存在相当大的不确定性。任何模型结构和/或参数化都可能与生态学原理和可用数据相一致。这些模型可能与管理应用有很大的不同，但可能不可能通过以合理的成本和与管理相关的时间框架进行面向过程的研究来区分。在某些情况下，适应性实验管理制度可以通过允许他们对资源动态和替代模式之间的区别进行临床学习而在经济上有益。H噢,在任何政治particu情况下m科大是d eterm独立董事w赫一个experim中央的regim e的经济可行的、带和m anagem ent行动和研究obse r - vations应该包含在regim T e。他发展和应用o f experim中央的m anagem ent regim e的渔业歌剧ting太ical鱼com m统一northw东部一个ustra投资局。本文总结了鱼类群落的开发历史，并提出了一些简单的模型，这些模型可以反映过去鱼类群落位置的变化。这些模型包括种间模型、种内模型和种内模型，以及对机制进行修正的模型。渔业对资源状况变化的可能的社会经济反应对未来渔业制度的评价至关重要，这些模型也被建模。这些模型用于评估西北大陆架上相互竞争的渔网和拖网渔业的管理方案。研究发现，如果采用一种试验性的水资源管理制度大约5-15年（在此期间，资源动态和社会经济反应中的关键不确定关系可以得到解决），那么从资源中获得的期望值可能比继续采用现有的水资源管理制度要高。一些实验性的管理制度也提供了一个比直接应用管理制度所能获得的更大的期望值，这对任何单个资源管理模型来说都是最优的。如果实验管理周期小于1.5个月，则无法充分解决关系中的不确定性，而周期大于1.5个月，则往往导致获得额外解决的成本超过资源预期改善收益的价值。
In m ost m ultispecies fisheries th ere is considerable uncertain ty in selection o f an app ro p ria te m odel to rep resen t the dynam ics o f the resource. M any m odel structures and /o r p aram eteriza tions m ay be consistent w ith ecological princip les and the avail able da ta . T hese m odels m ay have very d ifferen t m anagem ent im plications, bu t may be im possible to distinguish by p rocess-orien ted research at reasonab le cost and on a tim e fram e of relevance to m anagem ent. In som e circum stances an adaptive experi m ental m anagem ent regim e can be econom ically beneficial by allow ing em pirical learn ing abo u t resource dynam ics and d iscrim ination betw een alternative m odels. H ow ever, in any particu lar situation it m ust be d eterm ined w hether an experim ental regim e is econom ically viable, and which m anagem ent actions and research obse r vations should be included in the regim e. T he developm ent and application o f an experim ental m anagem ent regim e for the fisheries opera ting on a trop ical fish com m unity in northw estern A ustra lia are described . T h e h istory o f exploita tion is sum m arized and a num ber o f sim ple m odels are suggested which can m im ic past changes observed in fish com m unity com position. T hese m odels include interspecific, intraspecific, and hab ita t m odification m echanism s. Possible socio-econom ic re sponses of the fishing industry to changes in th e resource sta te are im p o rtan t to evaluation o f a p rospective fishing regim e, and these are also m odelled . T h e m odels are used to evaluate options fo r m anagem ent o f com peting trap and traw l fisheries on the N orthw est Shelf. It was found th a t if an experim ental m anagem ent regim e w ere adop ted fo r abou t 5-15 years (during which tim e key uncertain ties in the resource dynam ics and socio-econom ic responses could be resolved) a larger expected value could be ob ta in ed from the resource than if the existing m anagem ent regim e w ere continued. Som e experim ental m anagem ent regim es also prov ided a g rea te r expected value than would be ob ta ined from im m ediate application of the m anagem ent regim e th a t is optim al fo r any of the individual resource m odels. E xperim ental m anagem ent periods o f less than abo u t 5 y d id n o t allow sufficient reso lu tion o f uncerta in ties to be w orthw hile, and periods o f longer than about 15 y o ften resu lted in the costs o f ob tain ing th e additional resolu tion exceeding the value o f the expected im provem ent in re tu rn s from the resource.