Rethinking Models of Civil War Settlement
Rethinking Models of Civil War Settlement
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重新思考内战解决模式
DOI：
10.1080/15325020600698728
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发表时间：
2006
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
Sonja Mann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
F. Pearson;Marie Olson Lounsbery;S. Walker;Sonja Mann
目前的研究是对Hartzell，Hoddie和Rothchild（2001）早期作品的复制和扩展，该作品探讨了内战解决的特点和稳定性。他们的研究重点是领土自治条款的重要性和第三方调解人在预测解决成功和稳定方面的作用。他们采用了一个模型，控制这样的冲突特征，如国际体系结构，前政权的性质，冲突持续时间，冲突问题，冲突强度。我们的研究使用Regan（2001）内战数据集复制了Hartzell等人，采用了更广泛的冲突定义和更严格的冲突结束定义。这里提出的结果不同于以前的研究发现，领土自治的规定作为一个解决稳定的预测的重要性被大大稀释，当一个人只审查那些冲突解决，已经持续了六个月或更长时间，没有互惠的暴力。然而，在修订后的数据集中，第三方调解人仍然是决定冲突解决稳定性的一个重要因素。我们还扩展了以前的工作，包括通过军事胜利结束冲突的情况，以及通过增加谈判解决变量的维度，将由于外部军事存在而被迫的解决方案与非胁迫的解决方案区分开来。
The current study is a replication and expansion of an earlier piece by Hartzell, Hoddie, and Rothchild (2001) exploring civil war settlement characteristics and stability. Their research focused on the importance of territorial autonomy provisions and the role of third party guarantors in predicting settlement success and stability. They employed a model that controlled for such conflict characteristics as international system structure, nature of the previous regime, conflict duration, conflict issue, and conflict intensity. Our study replicates Hartzell et al. using the Regan (2001) civil war dataset, employing a broader definition of conflict and a more stringent definition of when a conflict has ended. The results presented here differ from the previous study to have find that the importance of territorial autonomy provisions as a predictor of settlement stability is greatly diluted when one examines only those conflict settlements that have lasted for six months or longer without reciprocated violence. Third-party guarantors, however, remain a strong factor determining conflict settlement stability in the revised dataset. We also expand the previous work by including cases where the conflict ended through military victories, as well as by adding a dimension to the negotiated settlement variable that separates settlements that were coerced due to external military presence from those that were not coerced.