Measuring Community and Multi-Industry Impacts of Cascading Failures in Power Systems
Measuring Community and Multi-Industry Impacts of Cascading Failures in Power Systems
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DOI：
10.1109/jsyst.2017.2768603
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发表时间：
2018-12
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Bing Li;K. Barker;G. Sansavini
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bing Li;K. Barker;G. Sansavini
许多经济活动强烈依赖关键基础设施系统，尤其是电力系统。电力基础设施的故障不仅会导致电力供应中断，还会导致其他相关行业的生产力损失。本文旨在开发一个框架，将基于交流潮流的电网级联故障分析与多区域、多行业相互依赖模型独特地结合起来，以量化级联故障造成的电力中断的短期经济影响。开发了基于交流功率流的级联故障分析，以实现级联事件的准确再现和后果估计。我们使用经济相互依赖模型来评估级联事件的经济影响，同时考虑空间显性和跨境效应。预计直接供电中断和劳动力短缺造成的经济影响。对瑞士电网进行了案例研究，考虑了对其他相关国家的国际影响。研究结果为对电网中要素的重要性进行排序以及确定可通过准备规划加强的脆弱地区和经济部门提供了指导。
Many economic activities strongly depend on critical infrastructure systems, especially the electric power system. Failures in the electric power infrastructure not only cause the disruption of power supply but also result in losses in productivity across other dependent industries. This paper aims to develop a framework that uniquely integrates an ac power flow based cascading failure analysis for the electric network with a multiregional, multi-industry interdependence model to quantify the short-term economic impacts of electric power disruption due to cascading failures. An ac power flow based cascading failure analysis is developed to enable the accurate reproduction and consequences estimation of a cascading event. We use the economic interdependence model to evaluate the economic impact of a cascading event taking into account spatial explicitness and cross-border effects. The economic impacts due to both the direct power supply disruption and the workforce unavailability are estimated. A case study was conducted on the Swiss electric network, accounting for the international impact on other related countries. The results provide guidance for ranking the criticality of the elements in the electric network and for identifying the vulnerable regions and economic sectors that could be strengthened through preparedness planning.