Prognostic models for the probability of achieving an ongoing pregnancy after in-vitro fertilization and the importance of testing their predictive value.
Prognostic models for the probability of achieving an ongoing pregnancy after in-vitro fertilization and the importance of testing their predictive value.
复制标题
体外受精后持续妊娠概率的预后模型以及测试其预测价值的重要性。
DOI：
10.1093/oxfordjournals.humrep.a019092
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发表时间：
1996
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
T. Baccino
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Véronique Drai;Léa Bernigaud;A. Gaston;J. Boucheix;T. Baccino
本研究的目的是创建可靠的模型来预测在体外受精 (IVF) 治疗期间实现持续妊娠的概率：模型 A 在第一次治疗开始时，模型 B 在胚胎移植时，模型 C 在第一次 IVF 治疗结束时的第二次治疗期间。使用奈梅亨大学医院 (n = 757) 的数据创建预后模型，并将其应用于荷兰埃因霍温凯瑟琳娜医院 (n = 432) 的数据，以测试其预测性能。模型 B（在胚胎移植时进行）的预测相当不错（测试群体中的 c = 0.672）。例如，预测持续妊娠概率 < 10% 的患者中有 93% 没有实现持续妊娠。然而，埃因霍温的其他两个模型（A 和 C）的预测不太可靠。模型 C 在奈梅亨的预测价值相当高 (c = 0.673)。其在测试人群中表现不佳的部分原因可能是排卵刺激方案的有效性以及何时停止周期的决定的差异。因此，在 IVF 中心使用预后模型之前，应测试其在该特定中心的可靠性。
The aim of this study was to create reliable models to predict the probability of achieving an ongoing pregnancy during in-vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment: model A, at the start of the first treatment, model B at the time of embryo transfer, and model C, during the second treatment at the end of the first IVF treatment. Prognostic models were created using data from the University Hospital Nijmegen (n = 757) and applied to the data from the Catharina Hospital Eindhoven (n = 432), The Netherlands, to test their predictive performance. The predictions of model B (made at time of embryo transfer) were fairly good (c = 0.672 in the test population). For instance, 93% of the patients who had a predicted probability of achieving an ongoing pregnancy of < 10% did not achieve an ongoing pregnancy. However, the predictions of the other two models (A and C) for Eindhoven were less reliable. The predictive value of model C was fairly high in Nijmegen (c = 0.673). Its poor performance in the test population may be explained partly by differences in effectiveness of the ovulation stimulation protocols and the decision about when to discontinue the cycle. Thus, before using prognostic models at an IVF centre, their reliability at that specific centre should be tested.