The global magnitude-frequency relationship for large explosive volcanic eruptions
The global magnitude-frequency relationship for large explosive volcanic eruptions
复制标题
大型火山喷发的全球震级-频率关系
DOI：
10.1016/j.epsl.2017.11.015
复制
发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
5.3
通讯作者：
Rougier J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rougier J
就火山而言，如同其他自然灾害一样，大型事件的频率随着其规模的减小而减小，如震级-频率关系所示。评估这种关系是有价值的，因为它提供了关于火山活动的见解，以及风险管理的实际挑战。我们得出了一个全球性的震级-频率关系的爆发性火山喷发至少300吨的爆发质量（或M4。5）。我们的方法基本上是经验主义的，基于LaMEVE数据库中记录的喷发。它不同于以往的方法，主要是在我们的保守处理的幅度舍入和记录不足。我们对“超级爆发”（1000 Gt，或M8）的重现期的估计是17 ka（95% CI：5.2 ka，48 ka），这比以前的估计要短得多，表明火山对人类文明的威胁比以前认为的要大。
For volcanoes, as for other natural hazards, the frequency of large events diminishes with their magnitude, as captured by the magnitude–frequency relationship. Assessing this relationship is valuable both for the insights it provides about volcanism, and for the practical challenge of risk management. We derive a global magnitude–frequency relationship for explosive volcanic eruptions of at least 300 Mt of erupted mass (or M4. 5). Our approach is essentially empirical, based on the eruptions recorded in the LaMEVE database. It differs from previous approaches mainly in our conservative treatment of magnitude-rounding and under-recording. Our estimate for the return period of ‘super-eruptions’(1000 Gt, or M8) is 17 ka (95% CI: 5.2 ka, 48 ka), which is substantially shorter than previous estimates, indicating that volcanoes pose a larger risk to human civilisation than previously thought.