Can the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate sensitivity?
Can the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate sensitivity?
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DOI：
10.1029/2012gl053872
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发表时间：
2012-12-20
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Abe-Ouchi, A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hargreaves, J. C.;Annan, J. D.;Abe-Ouchi, A.
我们调查末次冰期最大值（LGM）和气候敏感性之间的关系，在PMIP 2多模式集合的GCM，并发现热带温度和气候敏感性之间的相关性，这是统计上显着的和物理上合理的。我们使用这种关系，以及安南和哈格里夫斯（2012）的LGM温度重建，以产生平衡气候敏感性的估计。我们估计平衡气候敏感性约为2.5摄氏度，极有可能低于4摄氏度，尽管这些结果受到几个重要警告的影响。本分析未考虑即将推出的PMIP 3/CMIP 5模型，因为这些模型目前很少有LGM模拟。我们建议，这些模型将提供一个有用的验证这里提出的相关性。引文：Hargreaves，J.C.，J. D.安南，M. Yoshimori和A. Abe-Ouchi（2012），末次冰期极大期能否限制气候敏感性？地球物理学保留信函：39，L24702，doi：10.1029/2012GL053872。
We investigate the relationship between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and climate sensitivity across the PMIP2 multi-model ensemble of GCMs, and find a correlation between tropical temperature and climate sensitivity which is statistically significant and physically plausible. We use this relationship, together with the LGM temperature reconstruction of Annan and Hargreaves (2012), to generate estimates for the equilibrium climate sensitivity. We estimate the equilibrium climate sensitivity to be about 2.5 degrees C with a high probability of being under 4 degrees C, though these results are subject to several important caveats. The forthcoming PMIP3/CMIP5 models were not considered in this analysis, as very few LGM simulations are currently available from these models. We propose that these models will provide a useful validation of the correlation presented here. Citation: Hargreaves, J. C., J. D. Annan, M. Yoshimori, and A. Abe-Ouchi (2012), Can the Last Glacial Maximum constrain climate sensitivity?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L24702, doi:10.1029/2012GL053872.