How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?
How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.12520
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发表时间：
2014-07-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Waha, Katharina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bassu, Simona;Brisson, Nadine;Waha, Katharina
气候变化对作物生产的潜在影响可以使用机械作物模拟模型进行研究。虽然存在各种各样的玉米模拟模型，它是不知道不同的模型是否分歧粮食产量对气候因素变化的反应，或者他们是否同意在其一般趋势有关的物候，生长和产量。为了分析模拟产量对温度和大气二氧化碳浓度变化的敏感性，我们提出了迄今为止最大的玉米作物模型相互比较，包括23个不同的模型。这些模型在代表世界上广泛的玉米生产条件的四个地点进行了评估：Lusignan（法国），艾姆斯（美国），里奥韦尔迪（巴西）和Morogoro（坦桑尼亚）。虽然个别模型在四个地点的绝对产量模拟差异很大，但即使在校准数据较低的情况下，最少数量的模型的集合也能够准确地模拟四个地点的绝对产量，因此表明使用集合模型具有优点。温度升高对模拟的产量响应有强烈的负面影响，约为-0.5 Mg ha（-1）/℃。将[CO2]从360增加到720 μ mol mol（-1），在所有模型和试验点上，平均增产7.5%。因此，这将使温度成为本世纪末改变玉米产量的主要因素。此外，有一个很大的不确定性，产量对[CO2]的模型之间的反应。模型对温度和[CO2]的响应没有差异，无论是模型模拟低校准信息或模拟高水平的校准信息。
Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(-1) per degrees C. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 mu mol mol(-1) increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.