Forecast Uncertainty—Ex Ante and Ex Post: U.S. Inflation and Output Growth
Forecast Uncertainty—Ex Ante and Ex Post: U.S. Inflation and Output Growth
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预测不确定性——事前和事后：美国通胀和产出增长
DOI：
10.1080/07350015.2013.859618
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Michael P. Clements
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Michael P. Clements
对宏观变量进行点预测和直方图预测的受访者既表明了他们认为未来在事前有多不确定，也表明了他们在事后的表现有多不确定。宏观经济预测者往往对一年或更长时间的预测过于自信，但对短期预测的不确定性估计过高（即缺乏信心）。随着预测范围的缩短，事前的不确定性与事后的衡量相比仍处于较高水平。几乎没有证据表明个人事后预测的准确性与事前主观评估之间存在联系。
Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macro-variables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their ex post performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconfident at horizons of a year or more, but overestimate (i.e., are underconfident regarding) the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons. Ex ante uncertainty remains at a high level compared to the ex post measure as the forecast horizon shortens. There is little evidence of a link between individuals’ ex post forecast accuracy and their ex ante subjective assessments.