Correlation between COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality Rates in Japan and Local Population Density, Temperature, and Absolute Humidity
Correlation between COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality Rates in Japan and Local Population Density, Temperature, and Absolute Humidity
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph17155477
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发表时间：
2020-08-01
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Hirata, Akimasa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kodera, Sachiko;Rashed, Essam A.;Hirata, Akimasa
本研究分析了日本不同都道府县冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行的发病率和死亡率。在每日最高确诊死亡人数和每日最高病例数分别应超过4人和10人的限制下，纳入了14个都道府县，并对影响发病率和死亡率的辅助因素进行了评价。特别是，评估了确认的死亡人数，不包括医院感染病例和疗养院患者。发病率和死亡率与人口密度之间的相关性具有统计学意义（p值< 0.05）。此外，老年人口的百分比也不容忽视。在天气参数中，最高温度和绝对湿度在持续时间内的平均值被认为是在适度的相关性与发病率和死亡率。观察到较高温度和绝对湿度的发病率和死亡率较低。考虑这些因素的多元线性回归显示，就人口密度、老年人百分比和最大绝对湿度而言，确诊病例的调整决定系数为0.693（p值< 0.01）。这些发现可能有助于未来大流行期间的干预计划，包括潜在的第二次COVID-19爆发。
This study analyzed the morbidity and mortality rates of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. Under the constraint that daily maximum confirmed deaths and daily maximum cases should exceed 4 and 10, respectively, 14 prefectures were included, and cofactors affecting the morbidity and mortality rates were evaluated. In particular, the number of confirmed deaths was assessed, excluding cases of nosocomial infections and nursing home patients. The correlations between the morbidity and mortality rates and population density were statistically significant (p-value < 0.05). In addition, the percentage of elderly population was also found to be non-negligible. Among weather parameters, the maximum temperature and absolute humidity averaged over the duration were found to be in modest correlation with the morbidity and mortality rates. Lower morbidity and mortality rates were observed for higher temperature and absolute humidity. Multivariate linear regression considering these factors showed that the adjusted determination coefficient for the confirmed cases was 0.693 in terms of population density, elderly percentage, and maximum absolute humidity (p-value < 0.01). These findings could be useful for intervention planning during future pandemics, including a potential second COVID-19 outbreak.