Excess mortality due to COVID-19 in Germany.
Excess mortality due to COVID-19 in Germany.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.jinf.2020.09.012
复制
发表时间：
2020-11
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jöckel KH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stang A;Standl F;Kowall B;Brune B;Böttcher J;Brinkmann M;Dittmer U;Jöckel KH
德国对SARS-Cov-2大流行的管理被称为一个成功的故事。没有对德国的超额死亡率作出统计上合理的估计。大流行第一波期间的超额死亡率为8071例。年龄调整后，死亡人数比预期少4926人。几个因素解释了德国流感大流行相对温和的进程。2020年，德国的第一波SARS-CoV-2大流行从第10周持续到第23周。目的是提供在这段时间内德国超额死亡率的估计。我们分析了2016年至2020年第26周每周特定年龄的死亡人数。我们使用2016-2019年的每周平均死亡人数来估计2020年的预期每周死亡人数。我们估计了标准化死亡率（SMR）和95%置信区间。在第一波期间，60-69岁、80-89岁和90岁以上年龄组观察到的死亡人数高于预期。70-79岁年龄组没有显示出过高的死亡率。第10至23周的净超额死亡人数为8 071人。总体SMR为1.03 （95%CI为1.03 - 1.04）。在80-89岁和90岁以上人群中增加最多（SMR= 1.08和1.09）。考虑到人口统计学变化的敏感性分析显示，2020年第10-23周，总体SMR为0.98 (95%CI 0.98 - 0.99)，死亡人数为4,926人。超额死亡率持续2个月。第一波的有利进程可能是由于大流行开始时感染的年龄较低、接触率较低以及更有效的大流行管理。
The management of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic in Germany was named a success story. A statistically sound estimate of excess mortality has not been made for Germany. The excess mortality during the first wave of the pandemic is 8071 cases. After age adjustment, there were 4926 fewer deaths than expected. Several factors explain the comparatively mild course of the pandemic in Germany. The first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany lasted from week 10 to 23 in 2020. The aim is to provide estimates of excess mortality in Germany during this time. We analyzed age-specific numbers of deaths per week from 2016 to week 26 in 2020. We used weekly mean numbers of deaths of 2016–2019 to estimate expected weekly numbers for 2020. We estimated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals. During the first wave observed numbers of deaths were higher than expected for age groups 60–69, 80–89, and 90+. The age group 70–79 years did not show excess mortality. The net excess number of deaths for weeks 10–23 was +8,071. The overall SMR was 1•03 (95%CI 1•03–1•04). The largest increase occurred among people aged 80–89 and 90+ (SMR=1•08 and SMR=1•09). A sensitivity analysis that accounts for demographic changes revealed an overall SMR of 0•98 (95%CI 0•98–0•99) and a deficit of 4,926 deaths for week 10–23, 2020. The excess mortality existed for two months. The favorable course of the first wave may be explained by a younger age at infection at the beginning of the pandemic, lower contact rates, and a more efficient pandemic management.