FERTILITY TRANSITION IN SRI LANKA: IS IT A TEMPORARY PHENOMENON?
FERTILITY TRANSITION IN SRI LANKA: IS IT A TEMPORARY PHENOMENON?
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DOI：
10.1017/s0021932017000384
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发表时间：
2017-11-01
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
Perera, E. L. Sunethra J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Perera, E. L. Sunethra J.
本文利用人口与健康调查和人口普查的数据，研究了斯里兰卡的生育率转变及其最近的动态。对1953-2000年和2000-2012年两个时期的生育率趋势和模式进行了分析。调查结果显示，斯里兰卡的生育率转变相对较快，在大约40年的时间里达到更替水平。与社会和保健有关的因素，包括产妇和婴儿死亡率的下降、妇女教育的提高、体制、生殖价值观和行为的改变以及避孕药具使用的增加，都有助于到2000年降低生育率。然而，在2006/2007年斯里兰卡人口和健康调查和2012年人口普查中，观察到总生育率略有上升，分别为2.3和2.4。基于2006/2007年人口与健康调查数据的二元逻辑回归估计被用来确定已婚妇女生育偏好的重要预测因素。对影响多子女家庭（两个以上子女）可能性的因素进行的分析表明，受教育程度较低的妇女比受教育程度较高的妇女更有可能生育更多的子女。与城市妇女相比，生活在农村和种植园（商业面积20英亩或以上，雇用10名或以上劳动力）部门的妇女更有可能选择更多的子女，这一比例分别为1.4倍和1.2倍。从族群来看，摩尔族和泰米尔族妇女比僧伽罗族妇女更喜欢多生孩子的可能性分别高出4.5倍和1.4倍。当考虑到妇女的经济地位时，较贫穷的妇女比富裕妇女更有可能希望有更多的孩子，而中等财富五分之一的妇女希望有更多孩子的可能性是富裕妇女的1.2倍。研究结果表明，斯里兰卡政府应重新审视人口和生殖健康政策以及计划生育方案，以了解如何更好地管理斯里兰卡不同人口群体的生育率。
This paper examines the fertility transition and its recent dynamics in Sri Lanka using data from Demographic and Health Surveys and Population Censuses. Fertility trends and patterns were analysed for two periods: 1953-2000 and 2000-2012. The findings revealed that Sri Lanka's fertility transition has been relatively rapid and has taken place over a period of about four decades to reach replacement level. Social and health-related factors, including decline in maternal and infant mortality, increase in women's education, changes in institutions, reproductive values and behaviour, and increased contraceptive use all contributed to bringing down the fertility level by 2000. However, in the 2006/07 Sri Lankan DHS and 2012 Population Census, a slight increase in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) to 2.3 and 2.4, respectively, was observed. Binary logistic regression estimates based on 2006/2007 DHS data were used to identify the significant predictors of fertility preferences of ever-married women. The analysis of factors affecting the likelihood of having a larger family (more than 2 children) revealed that lower educated women were more likely to have a higher number of children than their counterparts with a higher level of education. Women who lived in rural and estate (commercial area of 20 acres or more employing 10 or more labourers) sectors were 1.4 and 1.2 times, respectively, more likely to prefer more children compared with urban women. In terms of ethnic groups, Moor and Tamil women were 4.5 and 1.4 times, respectively, more likely to prefer more children than Sinhalese women. When the economic status of women was considered, the poorer women were 1.4 times more likely to desire a higher number of children compared with rich women, while women in the middle wealth quintile were 1.2 times more likely to desire more children. The findings suggest that the Sri Lankan government should re-visit population and reproductive health policy and family planning programmes to see how it can better manage fertility among the different population groups in Sri Lanka.