The aging Canadian population and hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction: projection to 2020
The aging Canadian population and hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction: projection to 2020
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DOI：
10.1186/1471-2261-12-25
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发表时间：
2012-04-02
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Terres, Jorge Alfonso Ross
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rawson, Nigel S. B.;Chu, Rong;Terres, Jorge Alfonso Ross
背景：经历急性心肌梗死（AMI）的风险随着年龄的增长而增加，加拿大的人口正在老龄化。本分析的目的是检查2002年至2009年加拿大急性心肌梗死住院率的趋势，并估计未来十年急性心肌梗死住院人数的潜在增长。方法：从加拿大卫生信息研究所获得2002/03年和2009/10年除魁北克外所有省和地区AMI年度住院的汇总数据。使用泊松回归模型中的这些数据来控制年龄、性别和年份，外推2010年至2020年间AMI住院率。外推率和加拿大统计局人口预测用于估计2020年急性心肌梗死住院人数。结果：2002 - 2009年，按性别和年龄组划分，bb0 = 65岁患者AMI住院率呈下降趋势，男性和女性< 64岁患者AMI住院率相对稳定。然而，加拿大（不包括魁北克）急性心肌梗塞住院总人数预计将增加4667人，从2009年的51847人增加到2020年的56514人，增幅为9.0%。考虑到魁北克无法获得的数据，这个数字膨胀导致整个加拿大增加了大约6200人。这相当于额外的费用在4 600万至5 400万美元之间，敏感性分析表明可能在3 600万至6 500万美元之间。结论：尽管AMI住院率预计会下降或保持稳定，但由于加拿大人口老龄化，住院人数预计会大幅增加。这些住院治疗的费用将是巨大的。急性心肌梗塞住院人数的这种程度的增加以及随之而来的费用将对已经不堪重负的加拿大医疗保健系统产生重大影响。
Background: The risk of experiencing an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) increases with age and Canada's population is aging. The objective of this analysis was to examine trends in the AMI hospitalization rate in Canada between 2002 and 2009 and to estimate the potential increase in the number of AMI hospitalizations over the next decade.Methods: Aggregated data on annual AMI hospitalizations were obtained from the Canadian Institute for Health Information for all provinces and territories, except Quebec, for 2002/03 and 2009/10. Using these data in a Poisson regression model to control for age, gender and year, the rate of AMI hospitalizations was extrapolated between 2010 and 2020. The extrapolated rate and Statistics Canada population projections were used to estimate the number of AMI hospitalizations in 2020.Results: The rates of AMI hospitalizations by gender and age group showed a decrease between 2002 and 2009 in patients aged >= 65 years and relatively stable rates in those aged < 64 years in both males and females. However, the total number of AMI hospitalizations in Canada (excluding Quebec) is projected to increase by 4667 from 51847 in 2009 to 56514 in 2020, a 9.0% increase. Inflating this number to account for the unavailable Quebec data results in an increase of approximately 6200 for the whole of Canada. This would amount to an additional cost of between $46 and $54 million and sensitivity analyses indicate that it could be between $36 and $65 million.Conclusions: Despite projected decreasing or stable rates of AMI hospitalization, the number of hospitalizations is expected to increase substantially as a result of the aging of the Canadian population. The cost of these hospitalizations will be substantial. An increase of this extent in the number of AMI hospitalizations and the ensuing costs would significantly impact the already over-stretched Canadian healthcare system.