The estimation of the basic reproduction number for infectious diseases.
The estimation of the basic reproduction number for infectious diseases.
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DOI：
10.1177/096228029300200103
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发表时间：
1993-01-01
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Dietz, K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dietz, K
基本传染数R0是一个病例在完全易感人群中产生的继发病例数。它取决于传染期的持续时间、一次接触中感染易感个体的概率以及单位时间内接触的新易感个体的数量。因此，不同传染病的 R0 可能有很大差异，而且同一疾病在不同人群中的 R0 也可能有很大差异。流行病理论的关键阈值结果将流行病的爆发和流行水平的持续与大于1的基本繁殖数联系起来。由于 R0 的大小可以让我们确定预防流行病或消除人群中的感染所需的努力量，因此估计特定人群中给定疾病的 R0 至关重要。本文对各种可用的估计方法进行了调查。
The basic reproduction number R0 is the number of secondary cases which one case would produce in a completely susceptible population. It depends on the duration of the infectious period, the probability of infecting a susceptible individual during one contact, and the number of new susceptible individuals contacted per unit of time. Therefore R0 may vary considerably for different infectious diseases but also for the same disease in different populations. The key threshold result of epidemic theory associates the outbreaks of epidemics and the persistence of endemic levels with basic reproduction numbers greater than one. Because the magnitude of R0 allows one to determine the amount of effort which is necessary either to prevent an epidemic or to eliminate an infection from a population, it is crucial to estimate R0 for a given disease in a particular population. The present paper gives a survey about the various estimation methods available.