Developing activity duration specification limits for effective project control
Developing activity duration specification limits for effective project control
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ejor.2005.03.017
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发表时间：
2006-10
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
R. Bowman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Bowman
我们提出了一种新的指导项目控制决策的结构，以确保在活动持续时间不确定且由随机变量建模的情况下项目能如期完成。该结构包括为每个活动持续时间指定一个规格限制。在项目期间，如果完成一项活动的时间将超过其规格限制，就会采取措施，以一定的成本将时间降低到该限制。我们提出了一种算法，它选择规格限制来以最小的成本实现目标准时概率。该方法包括估计规格限制的微小变化对按时完成项目的概率和控制行动的成本的影响。所有活动所需的基于模拟的估计都是在一组模拟运行中获得的。计算结果表明，该算法的应用是有效的，与使用活动重要性度量(特别是活动关键程度)的更特别的方法相比，使用所产生的规范限制在指导项目控制决策方面具有显著的好处。
We propose a new structure for guiding project control decisions to ensure that a project is completed on schedule when activity durations are uncertain and modeled by random variables. This structure consists of specifying a specification limit for each activity duration. During the project, if the time to complete an activity is going to exceed its specification limit, actions are taken, at some cost, to bring the time down to that limit. We present an algorithm that selects specification limits to achieve targeted on-time probabilities at minimum cost. The method involves estimating the effect of small changes in specification limits on the probability of completing a project on time and on the cost of control actions. The required simulation-based estimates for all activities are obtained in a single set of simulation runs. Computational results show the algorithm to be efficient to apply and, when compared to a more ad hoc approach of using activity importance measures (specifically, activity criticality), the use of the resulting specification limits to be of significant benefit in guiding project control decisions.