'Exit' in Deeply Divided Societies: Regimes of Discrimination in Estonia and Latvia and the Potential for Russophone Migration
'Exit' in Deeply Divided Societies: Regimes of Discrimination in Estonia and Latvia and the Potential for Russophone Migration
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深度分裂的社会中的“退出”：爱沙尼亚和拉脱维亚的歧视制度以及俄语移民的潜力
DOI：
10.1111/j.1468-5965.2005.00594.x
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
James R. Hughes
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
James R. Hughes
赫希曼的“退出”模型设想，大规模移民可以与国家沟通反馈，并引发修改政策行为。对爱沙尼亚和拉脱维亚歧视俄罗斯人的制度进行了研究，以证明在种族间冲突的某些条件下，该模型并不像预测的那样起作用。在严重分裂的社会中，多数人的歧视制度可以有意地促进少数人的大规模移徙。在这种情况下，移民可能会起到安全阀的作用，缓解少数民族之间的对立。鉴于国际条件的局限性和融合或同化的糟糕前景，本文预测，在过渡时期后，当对自由行动的限制放松后，俄罗斯人将大量向外迁移到其他欧盟成员国。版权所有2005布莱克威尔出版有限公司
Hirschman's model of 'exit' envisages that mass migration can communicate feedback to a state and elicit modifying policy behaviour. The regimes of discrimination against Russophones in Estonia and Latvia are examined to demonstrate that in certain conditions of inter-ethnic conflict, the model does not work as predicted. In deeply divided societies the mass migration of a minority can be intentionally promoted by a majority regime of discrimination. In such conditions, migration may operate as a safety valve to release the build-up of minority antagonisms. Given the limitations of international conditionality and the poor prospects for integration or assimilation, this article predicts a significant out-migration by Russophones to other EU Member States when restrictions on freedom of movement are eased after the transitional period. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.