Bluetongue risk under future climates
Bluetongue risk under future climates
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41558-018-0376-6
复制
发表时间：
2019-02-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Baylis, Matthew
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jones, Anne E.;Turner, Joanne;Baylis, Matthew
有人担心，气候变化将导致病媒传播疾病的扩大，因为在所有疾病类型中，它们对气候驱动因素最敏感1。这种扩张可能会通过对动物和作物健康的影响来威胁人类健康和粮食安全。在这里，我们量化气候变化对一种由病媒传播的牲畜疾病蓝舌病的潜在影响，蓝舌病已出现在北欧，以应对气候变化2-4，影响数万个农场，造成巨大的经济损失，并导致数百万动物死亡5。我们推导出北欧未来的疾病风险趋势，并使用一个详细的空间传播模型6来模拟未来气候条件下英格兰和威尔士的疫情，使用一个由五个缩小尺度的大气环流模型组成的集合7。到2100年，蓝舌病风险进一步向北扩展，传播季节延长最多三个月，平均疫情更大。在温室气体排放最高的情况下，到本世纪70年代，在目前的气温下，20年一遇的疫情将成为典型。然而，限制动物活动足以防止真正毁灭性的疫情爆发。疾病传播的不确定性主导着气候的不确定性，即使在最长的预测时间范围内也是如此。我们的结果表明，在未来气候变暖的情况下，采取有效的检测和控制措施以限制媒介传播疾病的传播将变得越来越重要。
There is concern that climate change will lead to expansion of vector-borne diseases as, of all disease types, they are the most sensitive to climate drivers1. Such expansion may threaten human health, and food security via effects on animal and crop health. Here we quantify the potential impact of climate change on a vector-borne disease of livestock, bluetongue, which has emerged in northern Europe in response to climate change2-4, affecting tens of thousands of farms at huge financial cost and causing the deaths of millions of animals5. We derive future disease risk trends for northern Europe, and use a detailed spatial transmission model6 to simulate outbreaks in England and Wales under future climatic conditions, using an ensemble of five downscaled general circulation models7. By 2100, bluetongue risk extends further north, the transmission season lengthens by up to three months and outbreaks are larger on average. A 1 in 20-year outbreak at present-day temperatures becomes typical by the 2070s under the highest greenhouse gas emission scenario. However, animal movement restrictions are sufficient to prevent truly devastating outbreaks. Disease transmission uncertainty dominates over climate uncertainty, even at the longest prediction timescales. Our results suggest that efficient detection and control measures to limit the spread of vector-borne diseases will be increasingly vital in future, warmer climates.