Dengue fever epidemic potential as projected by general circulation models of global climate change.
Dengue fever epidemic potential as projected by general circulation models of global climate change.
复制标题
全球气候变化的一般循环模型预测，登革热流行潜力。
DOI：
10.1289/ehp.98106147
复制
发表时间：
1998-03
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Jetten, T H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Patz, J A;Martens, W J;Focks, D A;Jetten, T H
气候因素影响登革热的传播，登革热是世界上最广泛的病媒传播病毒。我们使用基于计算机的模拟分析将三个气候环流模型（GCM）的温度输出与登革热矢量容量方程联系起来，研究了全球气候变化对登革热传播造成的潜在附加风险。我们的结果测量，流行潜力，是媒介容量方程的临界蚊子密度阈值的倒数。流行潜力的增加表明，在登革热病毒传入的地方，少量蚊子可以维持疾病的地方性状态。用于比较的基线气候数据是1931年至1980年。在这三个GCM中，预计到2050年，平均气温将上升1.16摄氏度。所有三个GCM都预测，在五个选定的城市，潜在的季节性传播将出现与温度相关的增加，全球流行病的可能性也将增加，最大的面积变化发生在温带地区。对于已经处于风险中的地区，三种情景下的总流行潜力平均上升了31%至47%（范围为24%至74%）。如果像许多气候学家认为的那样，气候变化发生，考虑到病毒的引入和易感人群，这将增加携带登革热的蚊子的流行潜力。我们的风险评估表明，发病率增加可能首先发生在纬度或海拔与流行区接壤的地区。如果传播强度增加，流行地点可能面临更高的出血性登革热风险。
Climate factors influence the transmission of dengue fever, the world's most widespread vector-borne virus. We examined the potential added risk posed by global climate change on dengue transmission using computer-based simulation analysis to link temperature output from three climate general circulation models (GCMs) to a dengue vectorial capacity equation. Our outcome measure, epidemic potential, is the reciprocal of the critical mosquito density threshold of the vectorial capacity equation. An increase in epidemic potential indicates that a smaller number of mosquitoes can maintain a state of endemicity of disease where dengue virus is introduced. Baseline climate data for comparison are from 1931 to 1980. Among the three GCMs, the average projected temperature elevation was 1.16 degrees C, expected by the year 2050. All three GCMs projected a temperature-related increase in potential seasonal transmission in five selected cities, as well as an increase in global epidemic potential, with the largest area change occurring in temperate regions. For regions already at risk, the aggregate epidemic potential across the three scenarios rose on average between 31 and 47% (range, 24-74%). If climate change occurs, as many climatologists believe, this will increase the epidemic potential of dengue-carrying mosquitoes, given viral introduction and susceptible human populations. Our risk assessment suggests that increased incidence may first occur in regions bordering endemic zones in latitude or altitude. Endemic locations may be at higher risk from hemorrhagic dengue if transmission intensity increases.