Urban Blight Remediation as a Cost-Beneficial Solution to Firearm Violence
Urban Blight Remediation as a Cost-Beneficial Solution to Firearm Violence
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DOI：
10.2105/ajph.2016.303434
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发表时间：
2016-12-01
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
MacDonald, John M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Branas, Charles C.;Kondo, Michelle C.;MacDonald, John M.
目标。确定对废弃建筑物和空地进行疫病修复是否可以成为解决美国城市枪支暴力的成本效益解决方案。本文对1999年至2013年美国宾夕法尼亚州费城5112栋废弃建筑和空地的城市衰败整治项目对枪支和非枪支暴力事件的影响和投资回报进行了准实验分析。我们根据社会人口因素调整了治疗组与对照组的前后百分比变化和投资回报。废弃建筑修复显著降低了枪支暴力-39%(95%可信区间[CI] = -28%, -50%; P < 0.05)，空地修复也显著降低了枪支暴力（-4.6%;95% CI = -4.2%, -5.0%; P < 0.001）。这两个项目都没有显著影响非枪支暴力。在预防枪支暴力方面，纳税人和社会的回报分别是：在废弃建筑修复上每花费1美元获得5美元和79美元；在空地修复上每花费1美元获得26美元和333美元。城市居民每天都能看到被废弃的建筑物和空地，这些建筑物为非法活动和非法枪支提供庇护，可能为暴力行为创造机会。城市疫病整治项目可以成为显著和可持续减少枪支暴力的成本效益战略。
Objectives. To determine if blight remediation of abandoned buildings and vacant lots can be a cost-beneficial solution to firearm violence in US cities.Methods. We performed quasi-experimental analyses of the impacts and economic returns on investment of urban blight remediation programs involving 5112 abandoned buildings and vacant lots on the occurrence of firearm and nonfirearm violence in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, from 1999 to 2013. We adjusted before-after percent changes and returns on investment in treated versus control groups for sociodemographic factors.Results. Abandoned building remediation significantly reduced firearm violence -39% (95% confidence interval [CI] = -28%, -50%; P < .05) as did vacant lot remediation (-4.6%; 95% CI = -4.2%, -5.0%; P < .001). Neither program significantly affected nonfirearm violence. Respectively, taxpayer and societal returns on investment for the prevention of firearm violence were $5 and $79 for every dollar spent on abandoned building remediation and $26 and $333 for every dollar spent on vacant lot remediation.Conclusions. Abandoned buildings and vacant lots are blighted structures seen daily by urban residents that may create physical opportunities for violence by sheltering illegal activity and illegal firearms. Urban blight remediation programs can be cost-beneficial strategies that significantly and sustainably reduce firearm violence.