Divestment prevails over the green paradox when anticipating strong future climate policies
Divestment prevails over the green paradox when anticipating strong future climate policies
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-017-0053-1
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发表时间：
2018-02-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Ekins, Paul
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bauer, Nico;McGlade, Christophe;Ekins, Paul
化石燃料市场动态将对气候政策的有效性产生重大影响（1）。化石燃料所有者和化石燃料基础设施的投资者都对威胁其自然资源禀赋和生产能力的气候政策十分敏感（2-4），这将因此影响其近期行为。虽然短期政策承诺较弱（5，6），但气候巴黎协定（7）显示了稳定气候变化的雄心。许多研究强调，即使强有力的气候政策推迟到2030年，2摄氏度的目标仍然可以实现。然而，突然实施将对化石燃料市场及其他地区产生严重后果，这些研究忽略了所有者和投资者的预期效应。在这里，我们使用两个能源经济模型来研究两个核心但对立的预期论点的集体影响，绿色悖论（11）和撤资效应（12），到目前为止，这两个论点只被单独讨论过。对于广泛的未来气候政策，我们发现，预期效果，总的来说，减少二氧化碳排放量在执行滞后。这是因为在政策实施前十年开始对燃煤电厂进行了大力撤资。绿色悖论的影响是确定的，但在合理的假设下是小的。
Fossil fuel market dynamics will have a significant impact on the effectiveness of climate policies(1). Both fossil fuel owners and investors in fossil fuel infrastructure are sensitive to climate policies that threaten their natural resource endowments and production capacities(2-4), which will consequently affect their near-term behaviour. Although weak in near-term policy commitments(5,6), the Paris Agreement on climate(7) signalled strong ambitions in climate change stabilization. Many studies emphasize that the 2 degrees C target can still be achieved even if strong climate policies are delayed until 2030(8-10). However, sudden implementation will have severe consequences for fossil fuel markets and beyond and these studies ignore the anticipation effects of owners and investors. Here we use two energy-economy models to study the collective influence of the two central but opposing anticipation arguments, the green paradox(11) and the divestment effect(12), which have, to date, been discussed only separately. For a wide range of future climate policies, we find that anticipation effects, on balance, reduce CO2 emissions during the implementation lag. This is because of strong divestment in coal power plants starting ten years ahead of policy implementation. The green paradox effect is identified, but is small under reasonable assumptions.