Changes in tropical cyclone precipitation over China
Changes in tropical cyclone precipitation over China
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DOI：
10.1029/2006gl027951
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发表时间：
2006-10
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Fumin Ren;Guoxiong Wu;Wen-jie Dong;Xiaoling Wang;Yongmei Wang;Wanxiu Ai;Weijing Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fumin Ren;Guoxiong Wu;Wen-jie Dong;Xiaoling Wang;Yongmei Wang;Wanxiu Ai;Weijing Li
利用客观天气学分析技术（OSAT），从我国各站观测资料中分离出热带气旋（TC）降水（TCP）。本文分析了1957 ~ 2004年长江三角洲的空间分布、长江三角洲与年总降水量的比值、长江三角洲水量的变化以及长江三角洲特大暴雨的年发生频率，并重点分析了长江三角洲特大暴雨的长期趋势。热带气旋对中国南部、东南部和东部（包括台湾和海南岛）的年降雨量有很大贡献。东南沿海大部分地区的TCP可超过500毫米，占年降水量的20 - 40%。与年代际和年际变化一起，在过去的48年中，TCP量，TCP暴雨事件的年频率和TCP对年降水的贡献都有显着的下降趋势。在1957-2004年期间，这种下降趋势伴随着影响中国的热带气旋和台风数量的减少。这些变化强烈表明，中国在过去48年中经历了TC影响力的下降，特别是在TCP方面。
The Tropical Cyclone (TC) Precipitation (TCP) is partitioned from the station observations in China using the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique (OSAT). The TCP spatial distribution, its ratio to total annual rainfall, the changes in the TCP volume, and the annual frequency of the torrential TCP events during the period 1957∼2004 are examined with a focus on their long‐term trends in this study. Tropical cyclones significantly contribute to the annual rainfall in southern, southeastern, and eastern China, including Taiwan and Hainan islands. The TCP in most of the southeastern coastal regions can be more than 500 mm a year, accounting for 20∼40% of the total annual precipitation. Together with interdecadal and interannual variations, significant downward trends are found in the TCP volume, the annual frequency of torrential TCP events, and the contribution of TCP to the annual precipitation over the past 48 years. The downward trends were accompanied with the decreases in the numbers of TCs and typhoons that affected China during the period 1957–2004. These changes strongly suggest that China has experienced decreasing TC influence over the past 48 years, especially in terms of the TCP.