Alzheimer disease in the US population - Prevalence estimates using the 2000 census
Alzheimer disease in the US population - Prevalence estimates using the 2000 census
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DOI：
10.1001/archneur.60.8.1119
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发表时间：
2003-08-01
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Evans, DA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hebert, LE;Scherr, PA;Evans, DA
内容：阿尔茨海默病（AD）的当前和未来估计对于公共卫生规划是必不可少的。目的：提供2000年至2050年美国人口AD的患病率估计。设计：阿尔茨海默病发病率估计来自一项基于人群的、双种族的城市研究，采用分层随机抽样设计，转换为流行率估计值，并应用于美国人口普查局对美国人口增长的估计。一个地理上定义的社区3个相邻的社区在芝加哥，111，适用于美国population.Participants：阿尔茨海默病的发病率进行了测量，在3838人免费的AD在基线; 835人进行了评估疾病incidence.Main结果措施：目前和未来的估计患病率的临床诊断AD在美国population.Results：在2000年，有450万人AD在美国人口。到2050年，这一数字将增加近3倍，达到1 320万。由于美国人口中最老年龄组的迅速增长，85岁及以上的人数将增加四倍以上，达到800万。75至84岁的人数将增加一倍，达到480万，而65至74岁的人数将保持相当稳定的0.3至0.5 million.Conclusion：在美国人口中AD的人数将继续增加，除非新的发现有助于预防这种疾病。
Context: Current and future estimates of Alzheimer disease (AD) are essential for public health planning.Objective: To provide prevalence estimates of AD for the US population from 2000 through 2050.Design: Alzheimer disease incidence estimates from a population-based, biracial, urban study, using a stratified random sampling design, were converted to prevalence estimates and applied to US Census Bureau estimates of US population growth.Setting: A geographically defined community of 3 adjacent neighborhoods in Chicago, 111, applied to the US population.Participants: Alzheimer disease incidence was measured in 3838 persons free of AD at baseline; 835 persons were evaluated for disease incidence.Main outcome Measure: Current and future estimates of prevalence of clinically diagnosed AD in the US population.Results: In 2000, there were 4.5 million persons with AD in the US population. By 2050, this number will increase by almost 3-fold, to 13.2 million. Owing to the rapid growth of the oldest age groups of the US population, the number who are 85 years and older will more than quadruple to 8.0 million. The number who are 75 to 84 years old will double to 4.8 million, while the number who are 65 to 74 years old will remain fairly constant at 0.3 to 0.5 million.Conclusion: The number of persons with AD in the US population will continue to increase unless new discoveries facilitate prevention of the disease.